United States And The Civil War - 1668 Words

US Civil War United States of America was formed as a result of the revolution that continued from 1776 to 1783. After that, United States was divided into two wings/ parts that are the southern and the northern parts. Then conflict between the two aroused because the northern and the southern societies were totally different of each other in terms of economic structure, social class, politics and other social matters especially slavery. The civil war, that started in 1861 and ended in 1865, was the result of the unending conflict between the southern and the northern societies. The main issue that became the cause of conflict was slavery and the oppression of the labor class in the southern societies of the United States and the northern†¦show more content†¦On the other hand, the southern societies comprised of best suited agricultural lands and had complete hold on the agricultural needs of the states and also exported it to the European countries. In this society, there was great rac ial discrimination. The whites were the owners of the lands and they felt no need to establish the industrial culture because their lands were very profitable for them. Another reason for this was that the owners did not work and had the slaves that prepared the crop, harvested it, and supplied it to the markets. In short, slaves were responsible for the take care of the crops and the owners treated them brutally. They tortured them physically, emotionally, did not provide them with food and forced them to work all the time (Boritt, 1992). They were also punished harshly for their little mistakes due to which many slaves died as well. So there was great violation of labor rights and also human rights that triggered the seeds of hate and rebellion. In addition to it, the northern societies also supported the elimination of slavery. Reasons of Inevitability of War The US civil war was inevitable due to the three main issues that had created wide gap and extreme stiffness between the two societies of United States. The most important of them was slavery. The economy of the southern part of United States depended solely on the hard work

Lifeboat Ethics The Case Against Helping The Poor -...

Lifeboat Ethics: The Case Against Helping The Poor - Garrett Hardin What Should A Billionaire Give-and What Should You? - Peter Singer One of the most important issues facing the world today is the issue of the poor. There are many things that can be done about this issue, however much of the world is torn between wanting to help and not knowing how to go about it. This is the issue that is presented in the two essays - Garrett Hardin’s â€Å"Lifeboat Ethics: The Case Against Helping The Poor,† and Peter Singer’s â€Å"What Should A Billionaire Give-and What Should You?† Garrett Hardin was an ecologist who warned of the dangers of overpopulation. In his article, he argues that our first obligation is to ourselves and our posterity and that we†¦show more content†¦Without some system of worldwide food sharing, the proportion of people in the rich and poor nations might eventually stabilize. The overpopulated poor countries would decrease in numbers, while the rich countries that had room for more people would increase. Hardin continues on to show that the modern approach to foreign aid stresses the export of technology and advice, rather than money and food! An ancient Chinese proverb once said: â€Å"Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day; teach him how to fish and he will eat for the rest of his days† (Hardin, Pg. 84). A number of programs for improving agriculture in the hungry nations known as the â€Å"Green Revolution† have taken a big stand in offering harvest and greater resistance to crop damage due to action taken on this advice. It is said that foundations such as â€Å"miracle rice† and â€Å"miracle wheat† are one of the most prominent advocates of a world food bank. â€Å"If we satisfy a growing population’s need for food, we necessarily decrease its per capita supply of the other resources needed by men† (Hardin, Pg. 84). Hardin also points out that food is going to be significantly increased to meet a demand due to the overloading population, so what are going to do about the environm ent? For example, studies show that India’s population increases by 15 million each year. The

Internet Of Things In My Home Setting †MyAssignmenthelp.com

Question: Discuss about the Internet Of Things In My Home Setting. Answer: Introduction In recent times, technology has advanced at an exponential growth rate. With time the focus has shifted from individual devices to interconnected devices. It can be said that the increase use of Internet of Things is a step in that direction only. The Internet of Things can be defined as Sensors and actuators embedded in physical objects are linked through wired and wireless networks. The objective of this paper is to discuss the Internet of Things infrastructure in my setting. The paper discusses the eight key devices in my home network. IOT Home Network It would be correct to say that Internet of Things has completely changed the way people think of their home. Today, the homes are automated with the presence of number of gadgets and devices. People want that their home should be governed with mobile apps. Whether we are ready for such a level of automation, or what we want, is a whole other matter. However, this should quickly become the norm, before a new evolution of technologies again transforms our way of life. However, there are various problems, issues and challenges associated with the use of Internet of Things. It is important that the users must realize all the issues and benefits before they use IOT. It is understood that the users may not have answers or solutions to all the issues. However, this does not mean that users should not be aware of the issues. The privacy of the users, the security of the network, the connectivity and infrastructure issues are some of the biggest issues that exists with Internet of Things (Za hra, Brewer, Cooper, 2017). There are various solutions or procedures that should be used to take complete benefits of Internet of Things. This paper would discuss the issue and the solutions that should be used. It is important to mention that the some of the solutions may appear same for different devices. For example, password protection or protection through antiviruses and firewall is something that is applicable for all the devices. However, there could be certain solutions that are specific to some devices. For example, additional layer finger touch in home automation or security system. The diagram of Internet of Things infrastructure of my home can be shown as: IOT Setting: Home Networking The above diagram show the key devices that I use as a part of my life. At any point of time all these devices may not be connected together on a single platform. There are some devices that I can use manually also. However, for representation purposes, all the devices are shown together. The devices can be discussed as: Security system I have a NEST security system that has all the advanced features of camera view, mobile app control, etc. The security system is also protected by an additional layer of security of finger touch. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Associated Issue Comments Usage The usage of security system could be an issue as the user interface is not that much intuitive. Control There could be control issues for the users who are not comfortable with the usability and the user interface (Oravec, 2017). Connectivity The only connectivity dependency is on Internet. So, there can be connectivity issues if Internet is not fast. Security The device is supposed to be most secured. However, some of the security loopholes could be antiviruses, app updating, etc. Privacy There exist privacy issues as the device needs the personal information of users to create the profile. Solutions: The three important resolutions are: The additional layer of security in terms of finger touch is the key. It ensures that software or technology issues are taken care of The application must be updated on regular time interval The strong antivirus must be installed Home Lighting systems I have a Philips light system. There is a mobile application that controls the light. This app can self-diagnose and maintain schedules as per individuals usage and involve its acumen to design links as per generated data. Technology making it same lighting device red, blue yellow or as per the customization. Some of the issues associated with the home lighting system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage The usage issues are very less with home lighting system as these systems are issue to use Control The control issues are also very less as it is relatively easy to use the light systems Connectivity There are connected issue if Internet is not available. However, lighting system requires less bandwidth and the Internet issues in lighting systems are less than the Internet issues in other devices (Han, Crespi, 2017). Security The security issues are very less as users are not supposed to create their profile Privacy The data privacy issues are less as data is not stored in the system Solutions: The key measures to be taken are as follows: The home users should not create the personal profile unless absolutely necessary Use of antivirus would add to the security Use of firewall may slow down the speed and efficiency but it would certainly improve the security Thermostat I have a Honeywell thermostat. It is self-maintaining and improvises itself every time with required substantial data. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage There could be usage issue initially in terms of the user interface of the mobile app that control the thermostat Control There should not be control issue as it is easy to control the thermostat Connectivity Unavailability of Internet could be a major roadblock in terms of connectivity Security The security issues can creep in if the mobile application is not kept updated (Demirer, Aydin, Celik, 2017) Privacy There should not be privacy issues as individual user profiling is not required Solutions: The key solutions can be discussed as: Standardization of devices from different vendors is the key. For example, the thermostat from Honeywell and thermostat from Nest should have certain common standards. The usage and control should be password protected Smart TV I have a LG Smart TV at home. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage There are frequent changes or updates to the user interface that can create the usage issue Control The frequent updates can also create control issue Connectivity There are connectivity issues due to bad Internet Security There are security issues if the TV software is not updated and patches are not installed on time Privacy There are privacy issue as users personal information is needed Solutions: The three key solutions are: Different profile should be created for all the users who watch TV Inbuilt Antivirus Program should be there in the software of smart TV (Uckelmann Harrison, 2011) The software of Smart TV should be updated as soon as there is a new version or new patch in the market Coffee machine I have a Samsung Coffee machine. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage There is very less usage issue as it is easy to use the coffee machine and interface is much simpler Control The control issues are also very less as interface is simple Connectivity There is a connectivity concern related to Internet and bandwidth. Security There are security issues if the Coffee Machine software is not updated and patches are not installed on time Privacy Not much of the privacy issues as user are not required to create their personal profile (Verhoef, et al., 2017) Solutions: The main resolutions are: Users should not unnecessarily create the profile User interface should have frequent updates Microwave I have a LG Microwave. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage There are not much of usage issue with Microwave as the dependency on user interface is very less Control There are not much of control issue with Microwave as the dependency on user interface is very less Connectivity If connectivity gets lost, then it is not possible to operate the Microwave remotely Security There are very less security issues as the software is not that vulnerable Privacy Not much of the privacy issue as personal information is not shared Solutions: The three key way outs are: Standardization or common set of procedures from different vendors is the long-term solution (Perera, 2017). The mobile app should be updated on regular time interval IOT Apple Watch I have an Apple Watch. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage There could be frequent software update that can adds to the usage issue Control There are control issues as the software and the user interface is not that stable Connectivity The watch depends on Bluetooth connectivity and Bluetooth connectivity is supposed to better than Internet connectivity. Therefore, it can be said that connectivity issues are less Security There are serious security threats as the device is prone to hacks and attacks (Puliafito Mingozzi, 2017) Privacy There could be strong privacy concerns as user information is shared with the device. Solutions: The three key measures are: The watch app should be updated The patches must be installed on time Washing Machine I have a Panasonic smart washing machine. Some of the issues associated with the security system can be discussed as are: Issue Type Comments Usage There are not much of usage issue with Washing Machine as the dependency on user interface is very less Control There are not much of control issue with Washing Machine as the dependency on user interface is very less Connectivity There could be connectivity issues if Internet speed is not good. Security The security issue is less in this device as compared to others Privacy There are privacy issue only when user creates the profile Solutions: The major solutions are: Regular update of the software or user interface provided by Panasonic Timely update/ installation of patches (Demirer Ayd?n, 2017). There should also exist an additional layer of security through passwords. Conclusion The above paper discusses the Internet of Things setting in my home space. The research suggests that the large companies like Philips, Nike, Google, Apple, Schneider are all open to IOT product development, organizations such as GE, ABB, CISCO, IBM are manufacturing IOT products which can be used in various sectors like retail, automotive and education(Olsson, Bosch, Katumba, 2016). It is important that users must address the issues and challenges before they use the devices. The integration of different devices is also the key. For example, Philips Light systems should integrate with all the coffee machines irrespective of the brand. Nike has launched their smart watch only on iOs and not on Android and it may result in multi levels of collaboration. References Abou-Zahra, S., Brewer, J., Cooper, M. (2017). Web Standards to Enable an Accessible and Inclusive Internet of Things (IoT). Demirer, V., Ayd?n, B., elik, ?. B. (2017). Exploring the Educational Potential of Internet of Things (IoT) in Seamless Learning.The Internet of Things: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice, 1. Han, S. N., Crespi, N. (2017). Semantic service provisioning for smart objects: Integrating IoT applications into the web.Future Generation Computer Systems. Olsson, H. H., Bosch, J., Katumba, B. (2016). Exploring IoT User Dimensions: A Multi-case Study on User Interactions in Internet of Things Systems. InProduct-Focused Software Process Improvement: 17th International Conference, PROFES 2016, Trondheim, Norway, November 22-24, 2016, Proceedings 17(pp. 477-484). Springer International Publishing. Oravec, J. A. (2017). Kill switches, remote deletion, and intelligent agents: Framing everyday household cybersecurity in the internet of things.Technology in Society. Perera, C. (2017). Sensing as a Service (S2aaS): Buying and Selling IoT Data.arXiv preprint arXiv:1702.02380. Puliafito, C., Mingozzi, E., Anastasi, G. (2017, May). Fog Computing for the Internet of Mobile Things: issues and challenges. InSmart Computing (SMARTCOMP), 2017 IEEE International Conference on(pp. 1-6). IEEE. Uckelmann, D., Harrison, M., Michahelles, F. (2011). An architectural approach towards the future internet of things. InArchitecting the internet of things(pp. 1-24). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Verhoef, P. C., Stephen, A. T., Kannan, P. K., Luo, X., Abhishek, V., Andrews, M., ... Hu, M. (2017). Consumer Connectivity in a Complex, Technology-Enabled, and Mobile-Oriented World with Smart Products.

The Indian Education System Merits Demerits Essay Example

The Indian Education System Merits Demerits Essay The Vedas, Puranas, Ayurveda,Yoga, Kautilyas Arthasahtra are only some of the milestones that the traditional Indian knowledge system boasts of. There are evidences of imparting formal education in ancient India under the Gurukul system. Under the Gurukul system, young boys who were passing through the Brahmacharya stage of life had to stay at the Guru or the teachers home and complete their education. Although the ancient system of education has produced many geniuses and still a major area of research. Women and people of lower castes gradually lost their right to educate themselves. The spread of Jainism, Buddhism, Bhakti and Sufi movements did have some liberating effects on the condition of the women. But it is the English language and the reformation movements of the 19th century that had the most liberating effect in pre-independent India. Thus, the Britishers, although rightly criticized for devastating the Indian economy, can also be credited for bringing a revolution in the Indian education system. II. Types of Education There are different types of education in India. Every individual has the right to choose a method (As mentioned below) for his education. Universities play a major role in the lives of students in India. There are universities focusing on the study of medicine, arts and language, journalism, social work, business, commerce, planning, architecture, engineering, and other specialized studies. Most Indian universities teach in English Medium and conduct special language classes for those weak in English. With 343 universities and 17000 colleges, India offers a wide spectrum of courses that are recognized globally. We will write a custom essay sample on The Indian Education System Merits Demerits specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on The Indian Education System Merits Demerits specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on The Indian Education System Merits Demerits specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Apart from undergraduate, postgraduate and doctoral courses, there are many training and diploma-level institutes and polytechnics that cater to the growing demand for skill-based and vocational education. The quality education that India offers is within the reach of every income-group considering the reasonable fee structure. With 66 distance education institutions functioning in 60 universities besides 11 open universities, India has an enlarged outreach of distance education as well. Present Condition of Education in India:Â  Soon after gaining independence in 1947, making education available to all had become a priority for the government. As discrimination on the basis of caste and gender has been a major impediment in the healthy development of the Indian society, they have been made unlawful by the Indian constitution. The 86th constitutional amendment has also made elementary education a fundamental right for the children between the age group- 6 to 14. According to the 2001 census, the total literacy rate in India is 65. 38%. The female literacy rate is only 54. 16%. The gap between rural and urban literacy rate is also very significant in India. This is evident from the fact that only 59. 4% of rural population are literate as against 80. 3% urban population according to the 2001 census. In order to develop the higher education system, the government had established the University Grants Commission in 1953. The primary role of UGC has been to regulate the standard and spread of higher education in India. There has been a marked progress in the expansion of higher education if we look at the increase of higher educational institutes in India. The higher education system in India comprise of more than17000 colleges, 20 central universities, 217 State Universities, 106 Deemed to Universities and 13 institutes of National importance. This number will soon inflate as the setting up of 30 more central universities, 8 new IITs, 7 IIMs and 5 new Indian Institutes of Science are now proposed. Education System in India: The present education system in India mainly comprises of primary education, secondary education, senior secondary education and higher education. Elementary education consists of eight years of education. Each of secondary and senior secondary education consists of two years of education. Higher education in India starts after passing the higher secondary education or the 12th standard. Depending on the stream, doing graduation in India can take three to five years. Post graduate courses are generally of two to three years of duration. After completing post graduation, scope for doing research in various educational institutes also remains open. Prominent Educational Institutes in India: There are quite a good number of educational institutes in India that can compete with the best educational institutes of the world. The Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs), Indian Institutes of Science, National Law Schools, Jawaharlal Nehru University are some such institutes. Education for the Marginalized in India: As education is the means for bringing socio- economic transformation in a society, various measures are being taken to enhance the access of education to the marginalized sections of the society. One such measure is the introduction of the reservation system in the institutes of higher education. Under the present law, 7. 5% seats in the higher educational institutes are reserved for the scheduled tribes, 15% for scheduled castes and 27% for the non creamy layers of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Under the Indian constitution, various minority groups can also set up their own educational institutes. Efforts are also being taken to improve the access to higher education among the women of India by setting up various educational institutes exclusively for them or reserving seats in the already existing institutes. The growing acceptance of distance learning courses and expansion of the open university system is also contributing a lot in the democratization of higher education in India. Despite all the efforts to develop the education system in India, access, equity and quality of education in India continue to haunt the policy makers till this date. This has mainly been due to the widespread poverty and various prejudices. The inability to check the drop out rates among the marginalized sections of the population is another cause of worry. However, the renewed emphasis in the education sector in the 11th five year plan and increased expenditure in both primary and higher education can act as palliatives for the Indian education system. Education has become a career necessity in todays business world. College graduation will qualify you for many jobs that would not be available to you any other way. Your career advancement should be easier because some job promotions require a college degree. Education will help you develop your skills in reasoning, tolerance, reflection, and communication. These skills will help you resolve the conflicts and solve crisis that come up in the course of a personal or professional life. Education will also help you understand other peoples viewpoints, and learn how to disagree sensibly. A satisfied life depends upon the rational resolution of conflicts and crises. Of course, these critical skills can be developed without going to college, but the college environment has proven to be a good place to practice, learn and polish skills that will last you a lifetime.

dew drop dead essays

dew drop dead essays The book Dew Drop Dead is a mystery book written James Howe. The book is about three kids who thought they found a dead body in the Dew Drop Inn. Those kids are Sebastian Barth and his best friends David Lepinsky, and Corrie Wingate. I havent read a book besides Dew Droop Dead by the author James Howe. I also havent read a mystery book like Dew Drop Dead. I would like to read another book by the author James Howe though because he actually makes you think and go back some pages to figure out things. I think this book is very interesting. The story Dew Drop Dead opens with Sebastian Barth writing a letter to his pen pal in Japan, Koji. The story takes place in the town of Pembroke, and the story happens during the nineteenth century. The first character to appear in the story is Sebastian Barth. He is a twelve-year-older in the sixth grade that used to have a job at a radio station. There are three important characters in the story and they are Sebastian Barth, and his best friends David Lepinsky, and Corrie Wingate. Three minor characters are Sebastian's dad William Barth, Davids little sister Rachel Lepinsky, and Josh Lepinsky. I dont know anybody in real life thats like one of them. I think the most exciting event in the story was when Sebastian and his friends were in the woods and that man started chasing them. The thing that I liked best about the story was that in the beginning it had you thinking something and in the middle it had you thinking something else and at the end something totally different popped out and surprised me. I liked the ending of the story and I liked it because it had you thinking that the person was dead and then at the end it surprised me by saying he was alive. Basically the story is about three friends who thought they found a dead body but really the person was alive. I would recommend this book to anyone who likes myst ...

How Verbs Become Adjectives

How Verbs Become Adjectives How Verbs Become Adjectives How Verbs Become Adjectives By Mark Nichol What determines whether a verb-to-adjective transformation ends with the suffix -able (as in assessable) or with -ible (as in accessible)? Why do some root words accept both options? What happens if the word ends with an e? Answers to these and other questions about -able and -ible follow. The suffixes -able and -ible both express capability, fitness, or worth (or mean â€Å"tending, given, or liable to†), but there’s one key practical difference: The former flourishes, and the latter has fossilized. New words can be formed by attaching -able to an adjective (I’ll get back to that in a moment) or a noun (more about that later, too) but -ible, though widespread in existing words, is discouraged for new coinages. Some words use one form unequivocally. (For example, immovable and invincible are never rendered immovible and invincable). Others are spelled either way, although one form predominates (as in the case of discernible and its less frequent variant discernable). In some cases, the variants reflect a distinction of meaning: For example, collectable means â€Å"able to be collected,† but the more common collectible has the connotation of desirability and is used as a noun to denote something worth collecting. Intransitive verbs can also be transformed into adjectives by appending -able. Strictly speaking, reliable, for example, means â€Å"able to be relied on,† not just â€Å"able to be relied,† but the needs of the language have silenced opposition to such usage. Adjectives are also formed from attaching -able to nouns, such as objectionable from objection, though the nonword objectable is the logical formation based on the verb-plus-able formula. Two other peculiarities exist regarding the suffix: When it is appended to a verb ending in -ate, such as calculate, the original suffix is omitted, resulting, for example, in calculable (which is overshadowed in frequency of usage by its antonym, incalculable). And when a word ends in e, such as in the case of move, the e is omitted when -able is attached, hence movable. (You’ll see moveable and the like in older publications, but this form is rare in contemporary usage.) Exceptions occur when a soft c or a soft g precedes the e, as in serviceable and changeable. When coining new terms, keep these rules in mind though consider, as well, that even some existing words, such as embraceable, are ungainly, and newly minted terms may be disagreeable to some readers. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Spelling category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:12 Greek Words You Should KnowRunning Amok or Running Amuck?Ebook, eBook, ebook or e-book?

Analysis essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 1

Analysis - Essay Example 5. Certain policies of the government that might affect the economy and hence, the market or industry under consideration. One reason why it becomes very important to consider GDP in case of UK is that UK is a developed country. The infrastructure and the high end technology available in UK come at a higher cost than that in the developing countries. The expenditure increases due to non-availability of cheap labor. Thus, to support the ‘relatively’ high manufacturing costs, the GDP should be ‘relatively’ higher so that the profit is not affected. The GDP of UK was severely affected by recession. Though a lot of newspapers reported the rise in GDP by more than 0.4% in the fourth quarter last year, the GDP had dipped by 6% during recession (The Herald 2010). Does that mean that the spending has declined? Not much. The savings ratio has been declining along with the decline in GDP (guardian.co.uk 2010). Hence, the spending of citizens of UK has not been affected much. But another factor to worry about is the increase in VAT (Value Added Tax). To reduce the fiscal deficit, which went up during recession, the UK government has increased Value Added Tax from 15% to 17.5% (Dalong 2009). All confectionery items are VAT-able items. The cost of chocolates will increase. But how much will this affect the consumption of chocolates? To gain popularity in the UK confectionery market, it would be sensible to sell chocolates at a lower profit margin rather than increasing the prices because of the increase in VAT. ‘Cadbury’s’, which enjoyed a share of more than 30% of the UK confectionery market until last year, made the mistake of increasing the price of its ‘Dairy Milk’ bars. This led to a drop in the consumption of Cadbury’s products and their market shares dropped. Thus, it would be sensible to sell chocolates at lower price until the brand gains popularity and recognition and until UK completely recovers from reces sion (tutor2u 2009). The

Legal Profession Personal Statement Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Legal Profession - Personal Statement Example But people with a flair for the job, may not require it at all. "You are the final judge of your own psychological type" according to Isabel Briggs Myers-[website career planning.com-29-04-09]. A basic principle is that "humans are complex" [website careerplanning.com-29-04-09]. Another principle worth remembering is that the MBTI "does not stereotype people" [website careerplanning .com-29-04-09]. These indicate that while training may be useful, it has no universal applicability. Stature: A lawyer's profession is one of the best in the world. A lawyer occupies a high position in society. We can see that a large percentage of the world's celebrities like Prime Ministers, Presidents, Ambassadors etc. had their start as lawyers. A degree in law is the qualification for the job. I will acquire it. A lawyer can set up an independent practice or take up a salaried job. The income will be high, running into 5 or 6 digits. Lawyers have plenty of openings in banks, business corporations, industrial units etc as legal officers. Banks, Business Corporations like the Nokia, and Airlines are three specific fields which hire lawyers. I had a personal interview with a 26 year old lawyer. He was smart and alert, brimming with confidence and fearlessness. Soon after his joining, he shot up into the limelight by winning a couple of sensational cases. Now he is very popular and people from far away come to engage him.

Developing Oral Language Summary Essay Example for Free

Developing Oral Language Summary Essay Oral language and written language are essential skills that are needed for comprehension. Comprehension is defined as an understanding of oral and written language. In order for a child to comprehend what they are reading, several factors must come into play. Reading and decoding the words effortlessly without errors is the main step toward comprehension. When a child is reading text, they are experiencing phonemic awareness by sounding out the words in their mind. Writing is the next step toward comprehension. Writing goes hand in hand with reading. When a child is writing, they are also sounding out the words in their mind. Adults play a huge role in how children develop oral language skills. Automatic language is part of our everyday routines and children learn by â€Å"listening and speaking, phonological awareness and alphabetic knowledge, print awareness, comprehension, and writing† (Virginia.gov, n.d.). When students are learning to read and write, they do so simultaneously. It used to be thought that students should learn how to read first and then learn how to write. However, research has shown that learning to write while learning to read is important and vital in the development of reading (Pearson, D. 2007). A student needs to be able to read and write fluently in order to comprehend the material. In order to comprehend academic language, which is what students will use in school, there are certain concepts that a student must learn. Students need to learn syntax which is how words are formed to be able to create sentences void of errors. Students need to semantics which is defined as the meaning of language. Students should be able to cognitively understand and think about what they are reading. They also need to know how to use the language which is known as pragmatics. Through the use of various resources, students build up their vocabulary and strengthen their abilities to read fluently. â€Å"†¦the larger the reader’s vocabulary (either oral or print), the easier it is to make sense of the text† (National Institute,.n.d.). At this point, they will learn text structure and how sentences are strewn together. Of course, this all depends on what genre of text they are attempting to read and how complex the text in regards to the grade specific text they are reading. Being able to comprehend what one is reading all depends on what mood the student is in at the time. The student should be motivated and interested in the reading material. They need to understand the purpose of the reading; is it for enjoyment or for a school assignment? All of these are key factors that lead to comprehension. Another element of comprehension is cognitive targets. Cognitive targets are defined as the way a person comprehends or thinks about what is being read. The targets are locate and recall, integrate and interpret, and critique and evaluate. Locate and recall refers to locating or recalling something specific, such as the main idea, about the text they have read. Integrate and interpret refers to how a student can explain or compare what they have read. Critique and evaluate refers to how a student exams the text or evaluates certain parts of the text. Students practice these cognitive targets in both literary and informational texts. Examples of literary text include poetry, fiction, and non-fiction. â€Å"Informational texts include three broad categories: exposition; argumentation and persuasive text; and procedural text and documents texts† (NAEP). There are specific forms of instruction to improve comprehension and are most effective when taught together if possible. Comprehension monitoring is when a person is aware that they understand what is being read. Cooperative learning is when a group of students learn to read together. Graphic and semantic organizers are tools that readers use to represent material so that it is easier to comprehend. Question generation and question answering is when a reader asks themselves questions about the text and answers questions from the teacher. Story structure is when students are able to remember the main part of the story and answer questions about the story. Summarization is when a student reads text material and is able to generalize the entire text into a shorter passage. According to the article, Writing to Read, â€Å"instructional recommendations have shown clear results for improving students’ reading† (Graham S., Hebert. M., 2010). When these are other instructional methods are implemented into the reading process, comprehension can be very effective. This is especially true if these methods are built on top of an already developed language, strong background knowledge, and a high vocabulary. When teaching students comprehension through oral language and writing, teachers need to incorporate English language learners into their curriculum. English language learners may have linguistic issues and cultural background issues that are not only preventing comprehension, but also preventing reading and writing to begin with. As a teacher, it is crucial to first assess the ELL’s reading status to find out exactly where they are in the reading process. If so, what strategies can be implemented to better teacher the ELL’s. Also, a teacher needs to assess whether the student’s cultural background is preventing them from understanding the language. If this is the case, the teacher needs to learn the student’s background in order to assess where they are coming from academically. Not unlike native English learners, socioeconomic background can have an effect on how an ELL student is doing in school. According to the article, Cultural and Linguistic Impact, Patricia C. Salazar explains, â€Å"A student who comes from an educated middle-class family will have a different approach to learning than one who comes from a war-torn region of the world where food is scarce, and tragedy and trauma are daily occurrences† (Salazar, PC. 2009). Teaching an ELL student how to develop oral and written language will come from a successful assessment of the student. In order for a student to be successful at comprehension, oral language and written language skills must be mastered first. Reading is enhanced by written language and writing is enhanced by oral language. To facilitate a child’s learning, parents and teachers should provide as many resources as possible to accomplish this. In order to comprehend oral and written language, the student needs to be motivated and be reading grade specific text in order for the student to retain what they are reading. Cognitive targets are useful in facilitating comprehension and used regularly. Teachers also use different forms of instruction when teaching students how to build oral and written language. Finally, when teaching English language learners how to develop oral and written language, it is imperative that the teacher first learn of any linguistic or background issues and adjust their curriculum accordingly. It is crucial that educators teach students how to develop oral and written language in order to be successful academically. References Graham, S. Hebert, M. (2010). Writing to Read: Evidence for how Writing can Improve Reading. Vanderbilt University. Carnegie Corporation, NY. Retrieved from: http://carnegie.org/fileadmin/Media/Publications/WritingToRead_01.pdf Language Development. (n.d.). Retrieved from: http://languagedevelopment.tripod.com/id11.html Language and Literacy Language. (n.d.). Retrieved from: and Literacy http://www.dss.virginia.gov/files/division/cc/provider_training_development/intro_page/publications/milestones/milestones_individually/05.pdf National Center for Education Statistics. (n.d.). National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Retrieved from: http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/reading/whatmeasure.asp National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. (2000). What Works in Comprehension Instruction. Retrieved from: http://www.readingrockets.org/article/105/ Pearson, D.P. (2007). Reading Researcher Advocates Strengthening Literacy Programs Through Reading-Writing Synergy. Retrieved from: https://portal.flsouthern.edu/ICS/icsfs/reading_writing_synergy.pdf?target=7fde5bd4-34ca-4c2a-9b7b-3cf7f64718b8

how to make a bar :: essays research papers

Good stuff...be sure to note #1 below All: I have created a simple tool that I have given to our UPNY TeleSales reps to help them best identify which rate plan a customer should be on. It should be simple to use. In qualifying the customer, the rep enters the customers expected # of calls he/she will make on a daily basis (weekdays ONLY), and the program will calculate which America's Choice rate plan would be the least expensive, and which rate plan would give the customer the most value (given their usage). The purpose of the sheet is to help UP-SELL to higher rate plans, focusing more on the VALUE of the plans vs. the COST. The spreadsheet is LOCKED, prohibiting a rep from making any changes. It allows him/her to enter the # of phone calls the customer is expected to use daily (weekdays). This "should be" the only cell the rep needs to enter in, although one other cell is left UNLOCKED ... the average minutes/call. There are, in 2002, 21.75 weekdays/month, which is hard-coded in. KEEP IN MIND, PLZ ... this is a simple tool to help guide the rep to which rate plan to suggest. It is not a full blown detailed report of what the customer will be billed. It should NOT be shown to customers. It takes simple assumptions into consideration (ie: should the customer still have >10% of his plan minutes left over at the end of the month or should the delta between two rate plans exceed $25 or more per month, the program will not recommend the next rate plan up). Keep in mind also that this is newly created and has not been tested yet by the reps. Should any reps find any errors or suggestions to improve it, please let me know and I will fix &/or enhance it. It should be self-explanatory, but I will be happy to go over it with anyone that asks. As I hear feedback from reps, I will make changes and send you out a new & improved version. I am sending this to you in hopes that you might find it useful in your channels as well. If you wish to not receive future versions, just let me know. INSTRUCTIONS: 1.) The simplicity is to have the reps probe to find out how many calls/weekday the customer is expecting to make. This program DOES NOT calculate "off-peak" airtime.

Hiv Routes Of Transmission Health And Social Care Essay

Human immunodeficiency virus HIV is a lentivirus from retrovirus household that causes a HIV Infections in worlds which alters the immune system in a really terrible manner. HIV causes Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome ( AIDS ) at the last phase of the infection. The virus attacks immune system which makes people much weaker in contending against infections and assorted terrible diseases1. The chief focal point of this virus on human cells is to destruct the CD4 positive T Cells of the organic structure ‘s immune system. Destruction of CD4 positive T cells makes it worse for the immune system to contend against the infections, which allows life-threatening timeserving infections and more wellness jobs which may take to decease. Human immune system consists of of import cells which are being destroyed by HIV. This leads to moo CD4 count which in bend makes the human organic structure weak in contending against the infections2. HIV is found in the blood, chest milk, seeds and vaginal fluids of an septic individual. The virus is transmitted from one individual to another through blood to blood and sexual contact. HIV Infected individual ‘s Saliva with blood or any other organic structure fluids can be harmful and infective. HIV can be transmitted in different ways, such as sexual intercourse, blood transfusion, and besides contaminated subcutaneous acerate leafs. In the UK, the most common manner of acquiring HIV is by unprotected sexual intercourse with a individual who is HIV positive. It has shown in the UK statistics 2010 from the Health Protection Agency that 95 % of those diagnosed with HIV Positive due to sexual Contact. This shows that bulk in the UK get infected by HIV is through sexual intercourse which includes vaginal, anal and unwritten sex. This virus enters through the blood stream in different ways like lacerate tegument, oral cavity and eyes liners, and besides through the thin liner o f the anus and genitalias. HIV is non transmitted from an septic individual through caressing, caressing, ptyalizing, sharing bath towels or cutter, utilizing the same swimming pool and oral cavity to talk contact1. From the recent study, it has been shown that the following groups of people are at higher hazard of HIV infection which includes people who are shooting drugs, sex workers every bit Wellss as work forces holding sexual intercourse with men3. There are assorted methods to forestall HIV Transmission in our community through avoiding activities that leads you to dangerous jobs, such as unprotected sex and sharing septic acerate leafs and other assorted shooting equipments1, educating and reding people with HIV positive by the doctors and supplying them the best intervention so that to forestall HIV transmittal in general4. Current UK guidelines on HIV purpose to increase HIV proving in all health care sectors to diminish the sum of undiagnosed HIV infections. It is suggested that HIV trial should be offered to general populace in some sectors and besides to high hazard people in other different sectors ( for illustration, general pattern ) . The Department of wellness ( DH ) asked the National institute of wellness and clinical Excellence ( NICE ) to develop public wellness counsel to increase HIV proving between work forces who have sexual connexions with work forces to cut down undiagnosed infection and besides to forestall HIV transmittal. HIV Testing is one of the most of import factors which helps and guides the full community in UK through reduced HIV transmission5. Harmonizing to the statistics sing HIV, 6000 to 7000 people are diagnosed HIV Positive each twelvemonth in England. This is an of import factor to inquire the full community to concentrate and get the better of this job. Hence, encourage people to prosecute in different methods to forestall HIV transmittal and salvage the community in general with supplying proper consciousness sing HIV6. One of the most effectual ways to forestall HIV transmittal is through sex that is abstain from sex is the surest method to forestall HIV. If you decide to hold sex so acquire tested foremost to avoid HIV transmittal between you and your partner7. Use of rubber right in sexual activity is the most of import and advantageous point to halt the HIV spread and other infections which are sexually transmitted at every individual clip you have acute sex. Condoms are being marketed in different types of colors, forms, texture and spirits. Male rubbers are made up of latex or polyurethane and female rubbers are besides known as FC2, which is used for vaginal sex only7. Second, usage of merely water-based lubricators can increase sexual pleasance every bit good as safety, merely by adding wet to the vagina or anus during sexual intercourse. Lubricants decreases the hazard of vaginal or anal cryings which can be caused by waterlessness and besides it protects the rubber from rupturing off durin g sexual activity1. Third, usage of dental dike reduces hazard of sexually transmitted infections. It works as a wall between the oral cavity and vagina during unwritten sex. Fourthly, avoid utilizing septic acerate leafs, panpipes, or spoons which can expose you to HIV and other viruses which are found in the blood1. Pharmacological Prevention of HIV transmittal is through medical specialties and there are different methods used in forestalling its spread. Antiretroviral therapies ( ARTs ) are used to handle HIV, which prevents viral spread in the organic structure. A combination therapy of antiretroviral or extremely active antiretroviral therapy ( HAART ) is used for the effectual bar of HIV reproduction and transmittal in the organic structure. CD4 count and viral burden blood trial are two of import factors which help the physicians to make up one's mind on the intervention of that peculiar patient. Treatment is normally starts when the individuals CD4 counts shows below 350, irrespective of their presence or absence of their symptoms1. Harmonizing to WHO guidelines, it states that ART inductions are really good in forestalling HIV every bit good as clinically, they are more powerful in handling HIV positive patients, when the CD4 count is less than 350 cells/mm3. Viral burden plays the major function in HIV transmittal as it is one of the highest hazard factor in this scenario. When the viral burden is less than 1500 copies/mm3, the hazard of conveying HIV is about nothing as suggested by recent surveies. Evidence shows that the viral burden degrees are decreased by ART, hence bounds HIV transmittal depending on individual ‘s HIV position. WHO guidelines shows that they are chiefly engaged on extinguishing HIV and they strongly suggest that the usage of ART protects the full community which besides includes kids and pregnant adult females by handling and forestalling them from the spread of HIV8. There are different groups of ART medicines to forestall and handle HIV infection1. Virus attaches to the host cel l whereby it fuses with the host cell membrane. After the incursion into the host cell, the outer coat of the virus is removed and familial stuff and an enzyme released into the host cell, which is called rearward RNA polymerase, which converts viral RNA to viral DNA, so viral DNA penetrates to the host cell nucleus where by two procedure takes topographic point which includes written text and interlingual rendition takes topographic point which leads to bring forth new virions through peptidase enzyme2. Different antiretroviral medical specialties holding different mark but with one purpose, that is to suppress viral reproduction. Rearward RNA polymerase inhibitors are of two types that includes nucleoside contrary RNA polymerase inhibitors and non-nucleoside contrary RNA polymerase inhibitors. NRTIs are defective constructing blocks of Deoxyribonucleic acid when they are incorporated into HIV DNA, hence blocks the viral reproduction procedure, by non finishing the Deoxyribonucleic acid Chain. NNRTs bind to the enzyme contrary RNA polymerase and suppress the procedure of viral replication2. NNRTs are used in the intervention or HIV-1 but it is seldom used for HIV-2 in the UK9. Protease Inhibitors are inhibits the procedure of production of viral stuff through interfering with the peptidase enzyme. In the UK, Protease Inhibitors are Entry Inhibitors are inhibitors involved in barricading the virus to adhere with the host cellular membrane that lead to the obstruction of virus into the host cell. Integrase inhibitors are involved in barricading the procedure of integrating of viral familial stuff into the Host D NA by suppressing integrase enzyme. Microbicides are chemical and pharmacologic substances that are used for destructing some micro-organisms that cause terrible jobs to worlds. Many compounds are being produced and tested their effectivity against microbicidal activity in clinical tests. These merchandises are being produced for vaginal every bit good as rectal applications to protect from HIV infections and other sexually transmitted diseases. Presently, scientists are working on this undertaking in developing microbicides for forestalling HIV transmittals and heighten the degree of patient safety12. Post-exposure prophylaxis ( PEP ) is ARTs used after the exposure like occupational injuries10 or sexual exposure11 to forestall HIV infection. PEP medicines are non yet proved every bit good as unlicensed in the UK. They are merely supported by experimenting on animate beings. Besides, there are ongoing surveies for pre-exposure prophylaxis where it includes antiretroviral drugs before the exposure to HIV2. Another preventative step against HIV is through Vaccination procedure. Presently, HIV Vaccine is non available but it is one of the on-going research at a really early phase to bring forth effectual HIV Vaccine into the market so that to protect the full community against HIV infection. Since 1990, surveies have shown that the HIV spread from female parent to kid has been increased every twelvemonth. The Department of Health policy proposing that an HIV Test to be carried out in each and every pregnant adult females and has shown that it has addition consciousness in adult females prior to bringing and it has shown that more than 80 % of the adult females are cognizant in London, 2001 every bit good as it has reduced the figure of babies being infected in the UK13. Antiretroviral interventions ( ART ) are being used in gestation to forestall HIV transmittal from female parent to child. It is suggested that if you are HIV Positive so do non breast feed your kid, as virus transmittal can happen through chest milk1. Overall guidelines and counsel of antiretroviral therapy are being provided to forestall transmittal of HIV from female parent to child14. Pre-exposure prophylaxis ( PrEP ) in HIV protects healthy people from HIV infection. Current surveies and clinical tests are in the procedure of developing of PrEP to forestall transmittal of HIV. Surveies have shown a lessenings hazard of HIV infection among animate beings that are exposed to ARVs. PrEP has shown its effectivity in â€Å" humanized † research lab mice in the survey which was conducted in 200715 and besides, ARVs are given to female parents and babies to cut down HIV transimmsion16. The PrEP research surveies uses the drug called tenofovir that is delivered by unwritten path or topical path. It has shown in the four clinical tests that it reduces the hazard of acquiring HIV infection but in the two tests have shown no good response. As of today, there are two on-going surveies that have non yet published their findings on the consequence of HIV transimmision. There are many challenges in relation to safety and effectivity of PrEP inventions. Besides combinatio ns pill called TruvadaA ® ( Tenofovir and Emtricitabine ) which was accepted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) for the intent in HIV intervention in 2004. Truvada, as a PrEP was approved by the FDA in July, 2012 for forestalling from HIV transmittal. Powerful research grounds shows that the PrEP is safe and effectual when used systematically for diminishing the hazard of acquiring HIV sexually17. In Conclusion, it can be said that there are different paths of HIV transmittal and besides several methods are available to forestall its transmittal. Currently, many surveies are â€Å" traveling on † to develop new merchandises to forestall and handle HIV patients efficaciously with decreased hazard involved. Besides, public consciousness play a immense function in HIV bar by educating them through assorted resources like chew the fating with them or telephone conversations or supplying proper information on HIV transmittal with its badness. Harmonizing to the recent results of HIV transmittal in the UK, there are assorted factors must be followed by the general populace so that cut down the figure of people by acquiring infected through acquiring sex instruction, attachment to medicines and to avoid unprotected sex or work forces to work forces sex. This can take to healthy long life of our patients and diminish the figure of morbidity and mortality. Centres for Disease co ntrol and Prevention stated that about 50,000 people are freshly infected with HIV in the United States each year.18 From the estimations it shows that HIV is one of the terrible issue in our community which can take to decease as it is easy transmitted. Hence, Prevention of HIV transmittal is the most good factor to salvage our community with development of new merchandises which have different pharmacological marks to avoid opposition of the Drug.

Bmx Cycle Solutions

Question # 1 What business is LCI in? What are the key success factors? How operations can contribute? LCI BUSINESS: LCI was founded in 1994 by Mr. Sheikh Ubaidullah, a Former Chairman of Pakistan Cycle Cooperative Society Limited. LCI is located at Ferozpur Road, eighteen miles south of Lahore Pakistan. LCI marketed its bicycles under the brand name of Leader bicycles. LCI was in bad shape and financially bankrupt , all shops run by one supervisors , its production was practically zero when Managing director at Descon Mr. Razaq Dawood acquired LCI in June 1999. He hired new 6 engineers since 1999 in following departments like production planning, production scheduling, inventory control and quality control to set up all the necessary systems and procedures in order to turn LCI around. In May 2002 Five bicycles –manufacturing companies (competitors) existed in market, combined capacity of these companies producing bicycles were 580,000bicyles per annum, and all were running at or near capacity, the competition was very tough. Up to May 2002. LCI was producing 60,000 bicycles/annum, in May 2002, LCI started producing manufacturing its new product named BMX cycles, for betterment in this new product, after a year-long negotiation with Hercules of England, Decscon acquired from them the manufacturing and technology right, in Pakistan, for the very popular BMX cycle, Hercules also agreed to send engineers to Lahore for ten-week periods in order to help in set up the plant, tooling and train the staff. KEY SUCCESS FACTORS: * Senior Management of LCI wanted to introduce the BMX Cycle in market before competitors, and Mr. Mansoor Waraich, Senior Planning Engineer, had a lot of pressure by the top management of LCI to complete this huge production of BMX Cycles. That massive production was carefully planned and all the processes where closely monitored and upgraded. * Mr. Razaq Dawood, Managing Director, of Descon, took over the LCI in very bad shape , and he set up all necessary systems and procedures like production planning, production scheduling, inventory control and quality control in order to turn LCI around , it is also a factor of the success of LCI * Another key success factor was that Descon called Hercules of England engineers to train LCI’s staff. LCI’s staff can also go to England for the same training for a specific period. OPERATIONS CONTRIBUTION: LCI is a Production Company so operations plays very important role. Outsourcing and subcontracting of different raw materials is done for the better result of operations. All the plants structure was designed in a way so that they can minimize the wastage and can maximize the production. Manpower was also assigned according to their expertise and labor was hired on daily wage system. Question # 2 What is your Analysis of the BMX production process? How would you characterize this process? ANALYSIS OF BMX PRODUCTION PROCESS: BMX production process is almost in sequence, all processes depends on each other, if one process is skipped then they cannot complete other part of cycle, in other wards they cannot ignore only a single process, As LCI wanted to introduce BMX in market before competitors and management wanted to produce huge quantity of BMX cycles so LCI purchased different finished parts for BMX cycles from several suppliers, like, seats , pedals, handle bars, frame pads, and tires were directly purchased and installed , but other side , several parts, like sheet metal, metal coils, steel bars and pipes were manufactured from raw materials acquired locally and abroad. Management hired permanent and daily paid labor in all shops to complete tasks efficiently and in timely, this planning was proved very helpful to complete huge production. First process is cutting shop: This shop having 3 machines for cutting metal pipes into different lengths to use prepare bottom bracket shell, frames and handle bar, this shop run under one supervisor and 4 full time employees Second process is Bottom bracket shell shop: This Shop contained three 600 tons processes and 6 presses ranging from 60 to 100 tons, heavy parts of bicycle like BB shell were manufactured in this shop , this shop run under supervision of one supervisor and 4 full time employees. Handle Shop: BMX bicycle handles were manufactured at this shop completely, a specific machine automatically bent the placed pipe in a few seconds into appropriate configuration and cut the handle bars to length and knurled. These Knurled to help retain the handle bar grip. BMX enameling and Phosphating Shop: All parts of bicycle were enameling and phasphating, phaspating treatment enabled the steel surface to retain the enameled paint for a long time and provide a durable finish, all partes were placed on jigs and hang on a conveyer, this conveyer passed through a drying oven at a speed allowing each part to be baked at 1500C for approximately 50 minutes. Rim Shop; Bicycle Rims contained at this shop, One mm thick and 83 mm wide metal coils required to prepare rim and these rims imported from barazil or Japan, then front end coil was welded with back end coils and finally, the rims was bent into a required radius and cut after buffing and polishing. Press Shop: A specific machine at press shop for grinding and buffing the parts of rims and two ends of strips had been welded together Saddle, Brake and Hub Shop: Hubs and saddle for BMX cycle were assembled at this shop, loop clips of were manufactured at LCI , other parts like saddle frames and saddle covers were procured by vender and assembled manually at other end of same shop. Machine Shop: Four production lathes like a grinding machine, a milling machine and four drilling machines are contained at this shop, some parts of BMX cycle check-nut, lock-nut and wheel valve produced in machine shop, this machine was operating 50% of its capacity Electroplating Shop: Some parts of BMX like Hub flanges, steel rims , lamp brackets, spanners and chain wheels electroplate at this shop, this machine have limited equipment capacity so double shift running six days per week for electroplating. BMX Welding line: This shop have 5 welding stations and a mitering machine , different parts of cycle welded and metering machine give a smooth curve at the ends of tubes (pipes) once this machine was set then all tubes automatically mitered the tube. Final Assembly Area: This area have 6 work stations, fitting machine and an assembly track conveyor, all manufactured parts of BMX cycle assemble on these 6 stations, finally all the assemblies and accessory packets were packed in a cardboard carton for delivery. Characteristics, All shops worked very efficiently and all work stations busy to prepare assigned parts on same time so it’s very helpful to produce huge production, management took decisions for daily paid and monthly paid employees, and paid them attractive salary. Question # 3 Given the investment in BMX cycle manufacturing line, what is the payback period? Each bicycle Price = 2400 Gross margin = 8. 3% Profit margin for each bicycle = 2400 x 8. 3% = 199. 2 Production Capacity = 60,000 Profit margin for 60,000 bicycles are = 199. 2 x 60000 = 11952000 Payback on gross margin = 2 Years & 2 Months Question # 4 Assume the enameling plant capacity is 3000 bicycles per month, as senior planning Engineer, what alternatives are available to increase BMX cycle production? As per upper management’s drive to expand operations, a ten year old enameling unit that was purchased for Rs 3 Million in 1999. In order to increase production LCI in addition to subcontracted enameling should start in house production in parallel by utilizing the unit purchased. It may have to invest on up-gradation of the unit as required to meet the current production standards. Company purchased enameling machine but they did not use it, because outsourcing and subcontracting was present in LCI’s tradition so upper management should change it and it’s better to utilize enameling machine, bring it in use, so BMX production will definitely be increased. Question # 5 What is your recommendation and why? Following are the Recommendations and the reasons LCI should do some forecasting for identifying the real need of their product in the market, * They should give advertisement though email, news paper and web TV add etc, * They should do SWOT analysis of their o wn company and their competitors. * They should improve their weaknesses, and they should produce bicycle for elders * They should hire some vender for parts of BMX so it is suggested that they should arrange of those machines at their company, it’s also saving the cost and time. * For sustaining the market position more innovation is required, the designs of bicycles should be upgraded and changed to attract the customers towards the product.

Organizational Dynamics Essays

Organizational Dynamics Essays Organizational Dynamics Paper Organizational Dynamics Paper Kelsey Seminar 6 Saturday 1. How can managers develop an organizational culture that encourages a high-performance system or a learning organization? A high performance system is the idea that today’s organizations need continuing excellence and renewal as a way to bring innovation into our systems (Brown, 2006, p. 381). HPS calls for the removal of excessive layers of structure within the organization and the creation of a climate that encourages participation and communication across functional barriers (Brown, 2006, p. 81). The leader needs to display energy and zest for the task being worked on, the products and processes being developed, and fellow team members (Brown, 2006, p. 381). Leading by example is a popular way for managers to create excitement and electricity within the workplace (Brown, 2006, p. 381). Displays of enthusiasm tend to improve the morale and productivity of the workforce (Brown, 2006, p. 381). 2. Compare and contrast organiza tion development and organization transformation. How are they similar or dissimilar? Organizational development compromises the long-range efforts and programs aimed at improving an organizations ability to survive by changing its problem-solving and renewal processes (Brown, 2006, p. 4). It involves moving forward an adaptive organization and achieving corporate excellence by integrating the desires of individuals for growth and development with organizational goals (Brown, 2006, p. 4). Organization transformation is defined as dramatic, abrupt, change to total structures, managerial processes, and corporate cultures (Brown, 2006, p. 399). It requires a redesign of everything in the organization, including the norms of the culture, the very soul of the organization (Brown, 2006, p. 399). Nothing is sacred, and there are few, if any, guidelines (Brown, 2006, p. 399). The two are similar because they are both ways of helping make an organization better so it will be the best it can be. They are different because OD is more about making the individuals happy to help them want to make the company better, the OT is more about trying to redo the foundation of the company to make it better from here out. . Describe future trends in organization development and explain how each fits with in the context of your organization? The future trends include: (Brown, 2006, p. 427). Organizational Transformation- This recent advance in change strategies is used in situations of drastic, abrupt change when the organization’s survival is at stake. Shared Vision-this approach to organizational change involves getting all levels of m anagement to identify the strategic vision of the future and what it takes to make it work. Innovation- Organizations are focusing more effort on innovating- creating new products, goods and services. Trust- The critical factor in changing organizations is the development of trust within and between individuals, teams, and organizational units and levels. Empowerment- In order to develop high-performing systems, organization members must be empowered. Learning organization- a conceptual framework for the organization of the future, the learning organization is the notion that learning is central to success. Reengineering- The fundamental rethinking and radical redesigning of business ystems urges an overhaul of job designs, organizational structures, and management systems. Core Competences- the idea for companies to identify and organize around what they do best. Organizational Architecture- a metaphor that forces managers to think more broadly about their organization in terms of how work, people and formal and informal structures fit together. Reference Brown, D. R. Har vey, D. (2006). An experiential approach to Organizational development, (7th ed. ). ,Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall.

Coordination of Conjunctions and Punctuation

Coordination of Conjunctions and Punctuation Coordination of Conjunctions and Punctuation Coordination of Conjunctions and Punctuation By Mark Nichol When a conjunction is inserted into a sentence to separate two cumulative elements of the sentence, where commas, if any, are correctly positioned depends on the syntactical structure of the sentence regardless of whether a parenthetical phrase complicates the sentence. In each sentence with parenthesis below, the punctuation is not appropriate for the syntax. Discussion after each example explains the problem, and a revision provides a solution. 1. That debate could place everything on the table and, for that reason, significant tax reform in 2017 may prove challenging to achieve. This sentence consists of two independent clauses interrupted by the modifying phrase â€Å"for that reason† (which introduces the second clause). Without that phrase, the sentence would read, â€Å"That debate could place everything on the table, and significant tax reform in 2017 may prove challenging to achieve.† In the original sentence, â€Å"for that reason† is treated as a parenthetical phrase and is therefore bracketed by commas, but it is an introductory phrase, and so only the following comma is necessary: â€Å"That debate could place everything on the table, and for that reason, significant tax reform in 2017 may prove challenging to achieve.† 2. The business recently acted on the recommendation, and early on in its transformation process, has already generated valuable time and money-saving efficiencies. Here, the second part of the sentence shares the subject â€Å"the business,† so that section of the sentence is not an independent clause. The root sentence is â€Å"The business recently acted on the recommendation and has already generated valuable time and money-saving efficiencies.† Therefore, the punctuation should frame the parenthesis: â€Å"The business recently acted on the recommendation and, early on in its transformation process, has already generated valuable time and money-saving efficiencies.† 3. We observed several cases in which models were built solely based on a quantitative approach, and, as a result, generated poor model fit and model performance. This example has the same syntactical structure as the previous one but includes both a comma intended to separate independent clauses and a pair of commas to set off the parenthetical. However, the part of the sentence following the parenthetical is not an independent clause, so the first comma is an error: â€Å"We observed several cases in which models were built solely based on a quantitative approach and, as a result, generated poor model fit and model performance.† Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Punctuation category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:7 Examples of Passive Voice (And How To Fix Them)"Gratitude" or "Gratefulness"?Advance vs. Advanced

A detailed analysis of the tactile sensory system examining the Essay

A detailed analysis of the tactile sensory system examining the neurosceince, praxis and sensory modulation in relation to Autism - Essay Example ASD, Autism spectrum disorders are enduring neurodevelopmental disorders described as impairments in these three areas of functioning: communication abilities; restricted, stereotyped or repetitive behaviour patterns; and social behavior. Most researchers concur that autism is originated by either abnormal organization within the central nervous system, irregular brain structure, or both. Due to the variation of symptoms, the wide variety in their severity and the functional deficits’ continuum, the term ASDs is now being utilized to report the disparity observed in these children (Wing, 1997). Although there had been several theoretical evidence regarding the causes of autism, nowadays, more specific knowledge is available for the neurological and genetic abnormalities that exist. It’s been proposed that a surplus of axons in particular regions of brain results in an over-connection of these regions. Yet, their connections to other regions of the brain seem to be fragile (Herbert, 2005). It seems to be a need of coordination among these areas of brain. This lack of synchronization seems to affect brain functioning. People with ASDs have trouble conveying dissimilar cognitive functions mutually in an organized way. They suffer from difficulties in organization and planning (Prior & Hoffman, 1990). Synchronizing volition with sensation and movement can be complicated for some. In autism every part of the brain appears to perform on its own (Just et al., 2004) thus lacking a coordination of information. The information related to the environment is interpreted through sensory systems. It can be explained as a process within the brain which arranges sensory experiences – sound (taste), touch, gravitational pull, body awareness, movement and sight – into collective information which is then utilized by the individuals in reacting to and learning about

Research techniques and approaches PowerPoint Presentation

Research techniques and approaches - PowerPoint Presentation Example The survey questionnaire was helpful in retrieving real time view of the respondents by presenting certain statements aimed at understanding respondent’s view on the particular variables (GAIMSTER 2011, 56). The responses provided by the respondents will be measured using Likert Scale as this will enable the researcher to determine the degree of agreement or disagreement of the respondent pertaining to particular statements. On the other hand, the interview guideline enabled the researcher to gather in-depth detail about the subject. For evaluating the gathered data scientifically, the researcher shall use the SPSS software (FLYNN & FOSTER 2009, 56). This software provides statistical trends along with the graphical presentation of these trends to help researchers in asserting the primary information and answer research questions. Statistical analysis of surveys: For the purpose of checking the reliability of the data and the hidden information in the form of patterns, the researcher shall use Regression analysis, Corn Bach Alpha test of reliability, one way Anova and Mean analysis (BLESSING, CHAKRABARTI & BLESSING 2009, 89). The data collected will be analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Qualitative data will be analyzed using grounded theory methods. The hypotheses formulated for this study will be tested with the use of logistic regression and one-way Anova. Logistic regression is multiple regression but with an outcome variable that is a categorical dichotomy and predictor variables that are continuous or categorical (LAU 2012, 11). Quantitative data analysis was done to generate frequencies percentages and means. The resulting quantitative data will be interpreted using simple statistical method. The qualitative data obtained through open-ended questions and interview protocols wil l be analyzed by placing the

Relationship between literature, ehnicity and immigration Essay

Relationship between literature, ehnicity and immigration - Essay Example It is an observation that since ancient times, immigration remained a major activity of humans around the globe who used to travel from one region to another in search of food, shelter, employment, and several other facilities. In the result, this activity has enjoyed significant importance in every aspect of human life, and that is observable in huge amount of literature that indicates significance of immigration and its effects on different aspects of societies globally. This briefly allows the researcher to identify the relationship between immigration and literature, as the later one has always played the role of providing commentary regarding different cultural and social aspects related to the process of immigration during different eras. In addition, it is an understanding that literature has also been responsible for promoting or discouraging immigration in certain regions, and thus, both enjoy a strong relationship with each other. On the other hand, ethnicity is another imperative notion of human society that refers to the social concept that enables individuals or a group of people to identify each other based on language, culture, or ideology. In particular, analysis (Suls, pp. 33-38) has indicated that literature has been an important factor when it comes to ethnicity, as ethnic groups consider literature as one of their fundamental evidences to prove their ethnicity, and thus, literature and ethnicity exist in an interconnecting relationship with each other. Moreover, if one looks at the relationship of ethnicity and immigration, scrutiny of different sources has pointed out that immigration plays a crucial role in determining ethnicity of different group of people. For instance, when a group of people migrates from one country to another reason for any particular reason, the future generations of same group identify themselves in midst of two ethnicities, one existing in literature connecting them with th eir forefathers, and on the other hand, one existing in their society where they opened their eyes and grew up. In this regard, both literature and immigration are significant factors to contribute in alteration of ethnicity in a society, whereas, both immigration and ethnicity causes changes in literature, and similarly, literature and ethnicity has always become a reason of immigration in different parts of the globe. Therefore, it will be appropriate to state that all three notions of literature, ethnicity, and immigration enjoy a triangular relationship, where they interrelate with each other in different aspects. Examination of different sources (Suls, pp. 59-64) has indicated that literature related to immigration has always referred to historical and cultural models and techniques to understand its different features. In addition, literature and studies related to ethnicity have indicated dominance of similar models that indicates the relationship of the two with the literatu re. Another factor of their similar relationship with literature is their similar propensity towards ignoring social and cultural structures on micro or individual level. However, there have been instances where experts have suggested for a psychological scrutiny of different aspects of ethnicity and immigration and their impact on micro level; however, results have pointed out that both exist on macro level, and thus, majority of literature has indicated their construction as a macro component of human society. In order to understand the relationship of literature, ethnicity, and immigration further, the paper will now include analysis of the relationship based on theory of social identity by Tajfel (pp. 23-25) that will be effective in

The Recycling Of Plastic Waste Environmental Sciences Essay

The Recycling Of Plastic Waste Environmental Sciences Essay When you think about the huge amounts of plastics we produce and the problems that can occur when we try to Disposal of plastic, it makes sense to reuse or recycle what we can. Recycling: means making new things from items that have been used and are not need any more. Steps to recycling First, depolymerization is the step of transfer a polymer in a mixture of monomers. Second, thermal depolymerization is a depolymerization step using hydrous pyrolysis for the reduction of complex organic materials (often waste products of various sorts, often biomass and plastic) in a light crude oil.Third, the heat compression process have taken all unsorted, cleaned plastic in all forms, from soft plastic bags to hard industrial waste. The Applications in plastics tybes. (PET) are recycled to reuse the material out of which they are made and to reduce the amount of waste going to landfills. (PVC) is a thermoplastic polymer. (HDPE) The most-often recycled plastic. (HDPE) came from petroleum. (Other plastics)The white plastic foam peanuts used as packing material are often accepted by shipping stores for use it again.Finlly Example Items Recycling,Recycle Plastic Bags. Recycle Plastic Coat Hangers. Recycle Plastic Bottles .Recycle All Other Plastic Waste. The Effect of Recycling Plastics on the Environment # Resource Conservation Recycling plastic bottles assists to conserve natural resources, specially oil, that is nonrenewable natural resource obtainable only in limited provide recycling one ton of plastic can conserves around 3.8 barrels of oil according to the Environmental Protection Agency . 2.12 millions of plastic was recycled in 2008 which is equivalent to approximately 7.6 million barrels of oil. # Energy Conservation. The process of finding new materials from existing materials need much less energy than what is needed for rare materials. Recycling one pound of the most common plastic used in water bottles called polyethylene terephthalate (PET) can conserve around 12,000 British thermal units of heat energy according to the Environmental Protection Agency . the process of recycle needs less energy by two- third than usual manufacturing . which help in reducing the damage of the usual power grid. That depend on burning fossil fuels. # Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions The process of producing plastic is able to increase the greenhouse gasses in air like carbon dioxide. Which is known as a major reason of global warming . because recycling plastic require less energy and fossil fuels it result in reducing greenhouse gas revival . The Environmental Protection Agency foredoomed that each family can help to reduce its production of carbon dioxide by the average of 340 pounds yearly . just by reuse the plastic things # Decreased Pollution besides reducing greenhouse gasses . recycled plastic can decrease the amount of pollutants in air and water . in addition many of landfill operations will burn the plastic bottles to keep waste that is able to secreted toxic pollutants and other materials that irritants into the atmosphere . the plastic resin is useful to produce water bottles. Besides it contain unsafe chemicals Challenges of recycling Recycled the Plastics have a low entropy of mixing. A macromolecule of plastic interacts with its environment along its entire length. Also In most places, plastics are collected for recycling. It is not easy to recycle plastics because the different kinds of plastic must first be sorted out. Mixed plastic connot be used for recycling.In addaion, some people donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t suport gaverment so they didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t put kind of plastic in the right place!!. In Germany and some parts of the United stats, you pay a deposit when you buy a full plastic bottle. When you take your empty plastic bottle back to the shop, you get the deposit back. This encourages people to return their emptyplastic bottles and not just throw them away. The shops then return the bottles to the company that made them for refilling. Another solution to reduce using of plastic Many scientists and governments are working together to find ways to stop using plastic. In Bangladesh the government prohibited the plastic bags completely. In 2002 Ireland imposed taxes for using plastic bags about 0.15 EUR per bag that helped to reduce the usage of plastic bags by 90 percent .besides , they gain 1 million dollar as a revenue. But as individual we can take the lead to reduce usage of plastic by several steps such as: we can use reusable bags which have a various shapes, designs and sizes, when you donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t use it you can rolled and put it in your pocket. Another way you can use reusable water bottles which made of recycled materials that can last for a long time and be recycled once again also we can use glass bottles instead of plastic bottles which is reusable. Also the number of Disposable Diapers used nowadays is very huge, and it cost around $300 million yearly to decompose single use diapers . so families can use for their kids Disposable Diaper s that made of wood base instead of the once with plastic base because it is going to decompose later so it will not cause environmental problems and it cost less than the plastic once. However, good cooperation between the people and government and the countries will lead to better results . Conclusion This report is concerned with the complex question of dealing with plastic waste. There are dozens of different plastics in common use, and many products are made from a mixture of these. However , people dont really care about throwing plastics away as they are not expensive. The Previous pages introduced and discussed ideas such as source reduction of waste, degradability of plastic, and the impact on environment and human ,which all inter-relate with the central issue of plastic pollution. In addition, the report provided overview of the facts and issues involved, together with examples from around the world which demonstrate how progress is being made in effective waste management and production of brand new plastics is less cost. It must be emphasized that plastic waste recycling and management are not merely the concern of large-scale schemes and companies. Every individual one of us can take action to deal effectively with plastic waste in our lives, and in this small way make an essential contribution towards improving our environment by put our own selfish needs before the needs of everything around us now and the lives of future generations.

Hypoxia-mediated Selection of Cells with Diminished Apoptotic Potential

Cancer: Necrosis vs. Apoptosis Cancer is the second leading cause of death in humans. A cancer cell is a cell that has mutated from its original form and will often grow at a more rapid rate than normal. The body has built certain mechanisms to protect itself from these types of cells. One of the physiological processes the body uses to kill off these cells is apoptosis. Apoptosis is sometimes called "cell suicide". When the body detects that a cell's DNA has mutated and cannot be repaired, the cell will somehow trigger itself to self destruct. Up until 1972, scientists hadn't really looked carefully at how cells die. Once they did, it was apparent that two things could happen: necrosis or apoptosis. Necrosis was the term used to describe all cells that had died. However scientists have found that necrosis and apoptosis are two different processes. Necrosis is a result of outside forces acting upon a cell, causing it's destruction. Upon destruction of the cell in this manner, the internal contents of the cell are leaked into the local environment, which can be extremely harmful. In contrast, a cell dying by apoptosis does not release it's contents and potentially harm neighboring cells. Apoptosis is actually an active process within the cell. A process triggers some other process (which is not quite clear) inside the cell and tells the cell to start disassembling itself. When this happens, instead of releasing harmful chemicals into its environment, the cell is thought to send parts of itself to other surrounding cells to digest it. Roles of p53 and bcl-2 in Apoptosis The authors above and other scientists believe that the expression of the p53 gene is required for apoptosis. The p53 gene has been labeled as the tumour su... ... increases as oxygen is reduced, those cells with mutated p53 have a slower increase in death rate in hypoxic regions, compared to those cells that have normal p53 expression. This seems to point to the fact that the hypoxic regions are actually setting up a natural selection for the p53 deficient cells, and possibly other mutations resistant to death. Treatment Problems This can cause a problem when treating these cells with radiation and chemotherapy. These treatments attack the cells and attempt to destroy the DNA within the cell. This will usually cause an increase in the rate of apoptosis within the area treated. However if the cells in the area have built up a resistance to apoptosis they have built up an effective resistance to the chemotherapy and radiation. These facts could explain why the p53 gene is the most commonly mutated gene in human cancer.

Decision Making Tools

P A R T I V QUANTITATIVE MODULES Quantitative Module Decision-Making Tools A Module OutlineTHE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING DECISION TABLES TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS Decision Making Under Uncertainty Decision Making Under Risk Decision Making Under Certainty Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) DECISION TREES A More Complex Decision Tree Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making SUMMARY KEY TERMS USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS SOLVED PROBLEMS INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES DISCUSSION QUESTIONS PROBLEMS INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS CASE STUDIES: TOM TUCKER’S LIVER TRANSPLANT; SKI RIGHT CORP. ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES BIBLIOGRAPHY L EARNING O BJECTIVESWhen you complete this module you should be able to IDENTIFY OR DEFINE: Decision trees and decision tables Highest monetary value Expected value of perfect information Sequential decisions DESCRIBE OR EXPLAIN: Decision making under risk Decision making under uncerta inty Decision making under certainty 674 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The wildcatter’s decision was a tough one. Which of his new Kentucky lease areas—Blair East or Blair West—should he drill for oil? A wrong decision in this type of wildcat oil drilling could mean the difference between success and bankruptcy for the company.Talk about decision making under uncertainty and pressure! But using a decision tree, Tomco Oil President Thomas E. Blair identified 74 different options, each with its own potential net profit. What had begun as an overwhelming number of geological, engineering, economic, and political factors now became much clearer. Says Blair, â€Å"Decision tree analysis provided us with a systematic way of planning these decisions and clearer insight into the numerous and varied financial outcomes that are possible. †1 â€Å"The business executive is by profession a decision maker. Uncertainty is his opponent. Overcoming it is his mission. † John McDonaldOperations managers are decision makers. To achieve the goals of their organizations, managers must understand how decisions are made and know which decision-making tools to use. To a great extent, the success or failure of both people and companies depends on the quality of their decisions. Bill Gates, who developed the DOS and Windows operating systems, became chairman of the most powerful software firm in the world (Microsoft) and a billionaire. In contrast, the Firestone manager who headed the team that designed the flawed tires that caused so many accidents with Ford Explorers in the late 1990s is not working there anymore.THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS What makes the difference between a good decision and a bad decision? A â€Å"good† decision—one that uses analytic decision making—is based on logic and considers all available data and possible alternatives. It also follows these six steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Clearly define the problem and the factors that influence it. Develop specific and measurable objectives. Develop a model—that is, a relationship between objectives and variables (which are measurable quantities). Evaluate each alternative solution based on its merits and drawbacks.Select the best alternative. Implement the decision and set a timetable for completion. Throughout this book, we have introduced a broad range of mathematical models and tools to help operations managers make better decisions. Effective operations depend on careful decision making. Fortunately, there are a whole variety of analytic tools to help make these decisions. This modHosseini, â€Å"Decision Analysis and Its Application in the Choice between Two Wildcat Ventures,† Interfaces, Vol. 16, no. 2. Reprinted by permission, INFORMS, 901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400, Linthicum, Maryland 21090 USA. J. D E C I S I O N TA B L E S â€Å"Management means, in the last analysis, the substitution of th ought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folklore and tradition, and of cooperation for force. † Peter Drucker 675 ule introduces two of them—decision tables and decision trees. They are used in a wide number of OM situations, ranging from new-product analysis (Chapter 5), to capacity planning (Supplement 7), to location planning (Chapter 8), to scheduling (Chapter 15), and to maintenance planning (Chapter 17). FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKINGRegardless of the complexity of a decision or the sophistication of the technique used to analyze it, all decision makers are faced with alternatives and â€Å"states of nature. † The following notation will be used in this module: 1. Terms: a. Alternative—a course of action or strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker (for example, not carrying an umbrella tomorrow). b. State of nature—an occurrence or a situation over which the decision maker has little or no control (for example, tomorrow’s w eather). Symbols used in a decision tree: a. —decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected. b. —a state-of-nature node out of which one state of nature will occur. 2. To present a manager’s decision alternatives, we can develop decision trees using the above symbols. When constructing a decision tree, we must be sure that all alternatives and states of nature are in their correct and logical places and that we include all possible alternatives and states of nature. Example A1 A simple decision tree Getz Products Company is investigating the possibility of producing and marketing backyard storage sheds.Undertaking this project would require the construction of either a large or a small manufacturing plant. The market for the product produced—storage sheds—could be either favorable or unfavorable. Getz, of course, has the option of not developing the new product line at all. A decision tree for this situation is presented in F igure A. 1. A decision node A state of nature node Favorable market 1 Unfavorable market Favorable market 2 Unfavorable market no thi ng uct t str on plan C e g lar Construct small plant Do FIGURE A. 1 I Getz Products Decision Tree DECISION TABLES Decision tableA tabular means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. We may also develop a decision or payoff table to help Getz Products define its alternatives. For any alternative and a particular state of nature, there is a consequence or outcome, which is usually expressed as a monetary value. This is called a conditional value. Note that all of the alternatives in Example A2 are listed down the left side of the table, that states of nature (outcomes) are listed across the top, and that conditional values (payoffs) are in the body of the decision table. 676 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L SWe construct a decision table for Getz Products (Table A. 1), including conditional values based on the following i nformation. With a favorable market, a large facility will give Getz Products a net profit of $200,000. If the market is unfavorable, a $180,000 net loss will occur. A small plant will result in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, but a net loss of $20,000 will be encountered if the market is unfavorable. Example A2 A decision table TABLE A. 1 I Decision Table with Conditional Values for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES The toughest part of decision tables is getting the data to analyze.Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothing STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 In Examples A3 and A4, we see how to use decision tables. TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS The types of decisions people make depend on how much knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three decision-making environments: †¢ †¢ †¢ Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under risk Decision m aking under certainty Decision Making Under UncertaintyWhen there is complete uncertainty as to which state of nature in a decision environment may occur (that is, when we cannot even assess probabilities for each possible outcome), we rely on three decision methods: Maximax A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome. Maximin A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome. Equally likely A criterion that assigns equal probability to each state of nature. Maximax—this method finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.First, we find the maximum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative with the highest possible gain, it has been called an â€Å"optimistic† decision criterion. 2. Maximin—this method finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome for every altern ative. First, we find the minimum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative that has the least possible loss, it has been called a â€Å"pessimistic† decision criterion. . Equally likely—this method finds the alternative with the highest average outcome. First, we calculate the average outcome for every alternative, which is the sum of all outcomes divided by the number of outcomes. We then pick the alternative with the maximum number. The equally likely approach assumes that each state of nature is equally likely to occur. Example A3 applies each of these approaches to the Getz Products Company. 1. Example A3 A decision table analysis under uncertainty Given Getz’s decision table of Example A2, determine the maximax, maximin, nd equally likely decision criteria (see Table A. 2). TABLE A. 2 I Decision Table for Decision Making under Uncertainty STATES OF NAT URE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MARKET MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 MAXIMUM IN ROW $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 Maximax MINIMUM IN ROW $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 Maximin ROW AVERAGE $10,000 $40,000 $ 0 Equally likely ALTERNATIVES There are optimistic decision makers (â€Å"maximax†) and pessimistic ones (â€Å"maximin†). Maximax and maximin present best case–worst case planning scenarios. Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothingTYPES 1. 2. 3. OF D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G E N V I RO N M E N T S 677 The maximax choice is to construct a large plant. This is the maximum of the maximum number within each row, or alternative. The maximin choice is to do nothing. This is the maximum of the minimum number within each row, or alternative. The equally likely choice is to construct a small plant. This is the maximum of the average outcome of each alternative. This approach assumes that all outcomes for any alternative are equally likely. Decision Making Under Risk Expected monetary value (EMV)The expected payout or value of a variable that has different possible states of nature, each with an associated probability. Decision making under risk, a more common occurrence, relies on probabilities. Several possible states of nature may occur, each with an assumed probability. The states of nature must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive and their probabilities must sum to 1. 2 Given a decision table with conditional values and probability assessments for all states of nature, we can determine the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.This figure represents the expected value or mean return for each alternative if we could repeat the decision a large number of times. The EMV for an alternative is the sum of all possible payoffs from the alternative, each weighted by the probability of that payoff occurring. EMV (Alternative i ) = ( Payoff of 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Payoff of 2nd state of nature) ? (Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Payoff of last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) Example A4 illustrates how to compute the maximum EMV. Example A4Expected monetary value Excel OM Data File ModAEx4. xla Getz Products operations manager believes that the probability of a favorable market is exactly the same as that of an unfavorable market; that is, each state of nature has a . 50 chance of occurring. We can now determine the EMV for each alternative (see Table A. 3): 1. 2. 3. EMV(A1) = (. 5)($200,000) + (. 5)( $180,000) = $10,000 EMV(A2) = (. 5)($100,000) + (. 5)( $20,000) = $40,000 EMV(A3) = (. 5)($0) + (. 5)($0) = $0 The maximum EMV is seen in alternative A2. Thus, according to the EMV decision criterion, Getz would build the small facility. TABLE A. I Decision Table for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES Construct large plant (A1) Construct small plant (A2) Do nothing (A3) Probabilities STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORA BLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 . 50 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 . 50 Decision Making Under Certainty Now suppose that the Getz operations manager has been approached by a marketing research firm that proposes to help him make the decision about whether to build the plant to produce storage sheds. The marketing researchers claim that their technical analysis will tell Getz with certainty whether the market is favorable for the proposed product.In other words, it will change Getz’s environment from one of decision making under risk to one of decision making under certainty. This information could prevent Getz from making a very expensive mistake. The marketing research firm would charge Getz $65,000 for the information. What would you recommend? Should the operations manager hire the firm to make the study? Even if the information from the study is perfectly accurate, is it worth $65,000? What might it be worth? Although some of these questions are difficult to answer, 2To EVPI pla ces an upper limit on what you should pay for information. eview these and other statistical terms, refer to the CD-ROM Tutorial 1, â€Å"Statistical Review for Managers. † 678 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S determining the value of such perfect information can be very useful. It places an upper bound on what you would be willing to spend on information, such as that being sold by a marketing consultant. This is the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which we now introduce. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) The difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk.If a manager were able to determine which state of nature would occur, then he or she would know which decision to make. Once a manager knows which decision to make, the payoff increases because the payoff is now a certainty, not a probability. Because the payoff will increase with knowledge of which state of nature will occur, this knowledge has value. Therefore, we now look at how to determine the value of this information. We call this difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). EVPI = Expected value under certainty Maximum EMVExpected value under certainty The expected (average) return if perfect information is available. To find the EVPI, we must first compute the expected value under certainty, which is the expected (average) return if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made. To calculate this value, we choose the best alternative for each state of nature and multiply its payoff times the probability of occurrence of that state of nature. Expected value under certainty = (Best outcome or consequence for 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Best outcome for 2nd state of nature) ? Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Best outcome for last state o f nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) In Example A5 we use the data and decision table from Example A4 to examine the expected value of perfect information. Example A5 Expected value of perfect information By referring back to Table A. 3, the Getz operations manager can calculate the maximum that he would pay for information—that is, the expected value of perfect information, or EVPI. He follows a two-stage process. First, the expected value under certainty is computed. Then, using this information, EVPI is calculated.The procedure is outlined as follows: 1. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"favorable market† is â€Å"build a large facility† with a payoff of $200,000. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"unfavorable market† is â€Å"do nothing† with a payoff of $0. Expected value under certainty = ($200,000)(0. 50) + ($0)(0. 50) = $100,000. Thus, if we had perfect information, we would expect (on the average) $100 ,000 if the decision could be repeated many times. The maximum EMV is $40,000, which is the expected outcome without perfect information. Thus: EVPI = Expected value under certainty ? Maximum EMV = $100, 000 ? 40, 000 = $60, 000 In other words, the most Getz should be willing to pay for perfect information is $60,000. This conclusion, of course, is again based on the assumption that the probability of each state of nature is 0. 50. 2. DECISION TREES Decisions that lend themselves to display in a decision table also lend themselves to display in a decision tree. We will therefore analyze some decisions using decision trees. Although the use of a decision table is convenient in problems having one set of decisions and one set of states of nature, many problems include sequential decisions and states of nature.When there are two or more sequential decisions, and later decisions are based on the outcome of prior ones, the decision tree approach becomes appropriate. A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Expected monetary value (EMV) is the most commonly used criterion for decision tree analysis. One of the first steps in such analysis is to graph the decision tree and to specify the monetary consequences of all outcomes for a particular problem.Decision tree A graphical means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. DECISION TREES Decision tree software is a relatively new advance that permits users to solve decisionanalysis problems with flexibility, power, and ease. Programs such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree allow decision problems to be analyzed with less effort and in greater depth than ever before. Full-color presentations of the options open to managers always have impact. In this photo, wildcat drilling options are explored with DPL, a product of Syn copation Software. 679 Analyzing problems with decision trees involves five steps: 1. 2. . 4. 5. Define the problem. Structure or draw the decision tree. Assign probabilities to the states of nature. Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values (EMV) for each state-of-nature node. This is done by working backward—that is, by starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left. Example A6 Solving a tree for EMV A completed and solved decision tree for Getz Products is presented in Figure A. 2. Note that the payoffs are placed at the right-hand side of each of the tree’s branches.The probabilities (first used by Getz in Example A4) are placed in parentheses next to each state of nature. The expected monetary values for each state-ofnature node are then calculated and placed by their respective nodes. The EMV of the first node is $10,000. T his represents the branch from the decision node to â€Å"construct a large plant. † The EMV for node 2, to â€Å"construct a small plant,† is $40,000. The option of â€Å"doing nothing† has, of course, a payoff of $0. The branch leaving the decision node leading to the state-of-nature node with the highest EMV will be chosen. In Getz’s case, a small plant should be built.EMV for node 1 = $10,000 = (. 5) ($200,000) + (. 5) (–$180,000) Payoffs Favorable market (. 5) $200,000 Co n ct stru e larg pla nt 1 Unfavorable market (. 5) Favorable market (. 5) 2 Unfavorable market (. 5) –$ 20,000 –$180,000 $100,000 Construct small plant Do no th in g EMV for node 2 = $40,000 = (. 5) ($100,000) + (. 5) (–$20,000) $0 FIGURE A. 2 I Completed and Solved Decision Tree for Getz Products 680 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S A More Complex Decision Tree There is a widespread use of decision trees beyond OM. Managers often appreciat e a graphical display of a tough problem.When a sequence of decisions must be made, decision trees are much more powerful tools than are decision tables. Let’s say that Getz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. Before deciding about building a new plant, Getz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey, at a cost of $10,000. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Getz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.Getz’s new decision tree is represented in Figure A. 3 of Example A7. Take a careful look at this more complex tree. Note that all possible outcomes and alternatives are included in their logical sequence. This procedure is one of the strengths of using decision trees. The manager is forced to examine all possible outcom es, including unfavorable ones. He or she is also forced to make decisions in a logical, sequential manner. Examining the tree in Figure A. 3, we see that Getz’s first decision point is whether to conduct the $10,000 market survey.If it chooses not to do the study (the lower part of the tree), it can either build a large plant, a small plant, or no plant. This is Getz’s second decision point. If the decision is to build, the market will be either favorable (. 50 probability) or unfavorable (also . 50 probability). The payoffs for each of the possible consequences are listed along the right-hand side. As a matter of fact, this lower portion of Getz’s tree is identical to the simpler decision tree shown in Figure A. 2. Example A7 A decision tree with sequential decisions First Decision Point Second Decision Point $106,400 Favorable market (. 8) nt Payoffs $190,000 2 $49,200 1 Su re rve fav sult y (. 4 ora s 5) ble $106,400 la –$190,000 ep $63,600 Favorable market (. 78) arg L $ 90,000 Small 3 Unfavorable market(. 22) plant –$ 30,000 No pla nt –$ 10,000 Unfavorable market (. 22) vey –$87,400 Favorable market (. 27) pla nt $190,000 –$190,000 $ 90,000 –$ 30,000 –$ 10,000 y( rve Su ults e res ativ g ne t sur 4 Unfavorable market (. 73) (. 27) .55 arke $2,400 Con duct m L e arg $2,400 Favorable market 5 ) Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 73) No pla $49,200 $40,000 FIGURE A. 3 I Getz Products Decision Tree with Probabilities and EMVs ShownThe short parallel lines mean â€Å"prune† that branch, as it is less favorable than another available option and may be dropped. Do t no co nd uc ts ur ve y $10,000 Favorable market pla nt (. 5) $200,000 –$180,000 $100,000 –$ 20,000 $0 6 Unfavorable market (. 5) (. 5) L e arg $40,000 Favorable market 7 Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 5) No pla DECISION TREES You can reduce complexity by viewing and solving a number of smaller treesâ⠂¬â€ start at the end branches of a large one. Take one decision at a time. 681 The upper part of Figure A. 3 reflects the decision to conduct the market survey.State-of-nature node number 1 has 2 branches coming out of it. Let us say there is a 45% chance that the survey results will indicate a favorable market for the storage sheds. We also note that the probability is . 55 that the survey results will be negative. The rest of the probabilities shown in parentheses in Figure A. 3 are all conditional probabilities. For example, . 78 is the probability of a favorable market for the sheds given a favorable result from the market survey. Of course, you would expect to find a high probability of a favorable market given that the research indicated that the market was good.Don’t forget, though: There is a chance that Getz’s $10,000 market survey did not result in perfect or even reliable information. Any market research study is subject to error. In this case, there remai ns a 22% chance that the market for sheds will be unfavorable given positive survey results. Likewise, we note that there is a 27% chance that the market for sheds will be favorable given negative survey results. The probability is much higher, . 73, that the market will actually be unfavorable given a negative survey. Finally, when we look to the payoff column in Figure A. , we see that $10,000—the cost of the marketing study—has been subtracted from each of the top 10 tree branches. Thus, a large plant constructed in a favorable market would normally net a $200,000 profit. Yet because the market study was conducted, this figure is reduced by $10,000. In the unfavorable case, the loss of $180,000 would increase to $190,000. Similarly, conducting the survey and building no plant now results in a $10,000 payoff. With all probabilities and payoffs specified, we can start calculating the expected monetary value of each branch.We begin at the end or right-hand side of the decision tree and work back toward the origin. When we finish, the best decision will be known. 1. Given favorable survey results, EMV (node 2) = (. 78)($190, 000) + (. 22)( ? $190, 000) = $106, 400 EMV (node 3) = (. 78)($90, 000) + (. 22)( ? $30, 000) = $63,600 The EMV of no plant in this case is plant should be built. Given negative survey results, $10,000. Thus, if the survey results are favorable, a large 2. EMV (node 4) = (. 27)($190, 000) + (. 73)( ? $190, 000) = ? $87, 400 EMV (node 5) = (. 27)($90, 000) + (. 73)( ? $30, 000) = $2, 400 The EMV of no plant is again $10,000 for this branch.Thus, given a negative survey result, Getz should build a small plant with an expected value of $2,400. Continuing on the upper part of the tree and moving backward, we compute the expected value of conducting the market survey. EMV(node 1) = (. 45)($106,400) + (. 55)($2,400) = $49,200 4. If the market survey is not conducted. EMV (node 6) = (. 50)($200, 000) + (. 50)( ? $180, 000) = $10, 000 EMV (node 7) = (. 50)($100, 000) + (. 50)( ? $20, 000) = $40, 000 The EMV of no plant is $0. Thus, building a small plant is the best choice, given the marketing research is not performed.Because the expected monetary value of conducting the survey is $49,200—versus an EMV of $40,000 for not conducting the study—the best choice is to seek marketing information. If the survey results are favorable, Getz should build the large plant; if they are unfavorable, it should build the small plant. 3. 5. Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making Decision trees can also be a useful tool to aid ethical corporate decision making. The decision tree illustrated in Example A8, developed by Harvard Professor Constance Bagley, provides guidance as to how managers can both maximize shareholder value and behave ethically.The tree can be applied to any action a company contemplates, whether it is expanding operations in a developing country or reducing a workforce at home. 682 MODUL E A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Smithson Corp. is opening a plant in Malaysia, a country with much less stringent environmental laws than the U. S. , its home nation. Smithson can save $18 million in building the manufacturing facility—and boost its profits—if it does not install pollution-control equipment that is mandated in the U. S. but not in Malaysia.But Smithson also calculates that pollutants emitted from the plant, if unscrubbed, could damage the local fishing industry. This could cause a loss of millions of dollars in income as well as create health problems for local inhabitants. Example A8 Ethical decision making Action outcome Is it ethical? (Weigh the effect on employees, customers, suppliers, community versus shareholder benefit. ) Do it Ye s Ye No s Ye Is action legal? s Does action maximize company returns? Don't do it No No Is it ethical not to take action? (Weigh the harm to shareholders versus benefits to other stakeholders. Ye s Don't do it Do it, but notify appropriate parties Don't do it No FIGURE A. 4 I Smithson’s Decision Tree for Ethical Dilemma Source: Modified from Constance E. Bagley, â€Å"The Ethical Leader’s Decision Tree,† Harvard Business Review (January–February 2003): 18–19. Figure A. 4 outlines the choices management can consider. For example, if in management’s best judgment the harm to the Malaysian community by building the plant will be greater than the loss in company returns, the response to the question â€Å"Is it ethical? † will be no.Now, say Smithson proposes building a somewhat different plant, one with pollution controls, despite a negative impact on company returns. That decision takes us to the branch â€Å"Is it ethical not to take action? † If the answer (for whatever reason) is no, the decision tree suggests proceeding with the plant but notifying the Smithson Board, shareholders, and others about its impact. Ethical decisions can be quite complex: What happens, for example, if a company builds a polluting plant overseas, but this allows the company to sell a life-saving drug at a lower cost around the world?Does a decision tree deal with all possible ethical dilemmas? No—but it does provide managers with a framework for examining those choices. SUMMARY This module examines two of the most widely used decision techniques—decision tables and decision trees. These techniques are especially useful for making decisions under risk. Many decisions in research and development, plant and equipment, and even new buildings and structures can be analyzed with these decision models. Problems in inventory control, aggregate planning, maintenance, scheduling, and production control are just a few other decision table and decision tree applications.KEY TERMS Decision table (p. 675) Maximax (p. 676) Maximin (p. 676) Equally likely (p. 676) Expected monetary value (EMV) (p. 677) Expected value of perfect in formation (EVPI) (p. 678) Expected value under certainty (p. 678) Decision tree (p. 678) S O LV E D P RO B L E M S 683 USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS Analyzing decision tables is straightforward with Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows. When decision trees are involved, commercial packages such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree provide flexibility, power, and ease. POM for Windows will also analyze trees but does not have graphic capabilities.Using Excel OM Excel OM allows decision makers to evaluate decisions quickly and to perform sensitivity analysis on the results. Program A. 1 uses the Getz data to illustrate input, output, and selected formulas needed to compute the EMV and EVPI values. Compute the EMV for each alternative using = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B8:C8). = MIN(B8:C8) = MAX(B8:C8) Find the best outcome for each measure using = MAX(G8:G10). To calculate the EVPI, find the best outcome for each scenario. = MAX(B8:B10) = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B14:C14) = E14 – E11 PROG RAM A. I Using Excel OM to Compute EMV and Other Measures for Getz Using POM for Windows POM for Windows can be used to calculate all of the information described in the decision tables and decision trees in this module. For details on how to use this software, please refer to Appendix IV. SOLVED PROBLEMS Solved Problem A. 1 Stella Yan Hua is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all.The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are . 2 for a good market, . 5 for an average market, and . 3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? ALTERNATIVES Small sho p Medium-sized shop No shop Probabilities GOOD MARKET ($) 75,000 100,000 0 . 20 AVERAGE MARKET ($) 25,000 35,000 0 . 50 BAD MARKET ($) 40,000 60,000 0 . 30 684 MODULE A SolutionD E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The problem can be solved by computing the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative. EMV (Small shop) = (. 2)($75,000) + (. 5)($25,000) + (. 3)( $40,000) = $15,500 EMV (Medium-sized shop) = (. 2)($100,000) + (. 5)($35,000) + (. 3)( $60,000) = $19,500 EMV (No shop) = (. 2)($0) + (. 5)($0) + (. 3)($0) = $0 As you can see, the best decision is to build the medium-sized shop. The EMV for this alternative is $19,500. Solved Problem A. 2 Daily demand for cases of Tidy Bowl cleaner at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket has always been 5, 6, or 7 cases.Develop a decision tree that illustrates her decision alternatives as to whether to stock 5, 6, or 7 cases. Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases Solution The decision tree is shown in Figure A. 5. St oc k5 ca se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases oc k7 ca Stock 6 cases St se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases FIGURE A. 5 I Demand at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES Visit our Companion Web site or use your student CD-ROM to help with this material in this module. On Our Companion Web site, www. prenhall. com/heizer Self-Study Quizzes †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Internet Homework Problems †¢ Internet Cases On Your Student CD-ROM †¢ PowerPoint Lecture †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Excel OM †¢ Excel OM Example Data File †¢ POM for Windows DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Identify the six steps in the decision process. 2. Give an example of a good decision you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision you made that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad? 3. What is the equally likely decision model? 4. Discuss the differences between dec ision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty. . What is a decision tree? P RO B L E M S 6. Explain how decision trees might be used in several of the 10 OM decisions. 7. What is the expected value of perfect information? 8. What is the expected value under certainty? 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a problem using a decision tree. 10. Why are the maximax and maximin strategies considered to be optimistic and pessimistic, respectively? 685 11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk? 12.When are decision trees most useful? PROBLEMS* P A. 1 a) b) c) Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under uncertainty using: Maximax. Maximin. Equally likely. STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Build new plant Subcontract Overtime Do nothing VERY FAVORABLE MARKET $350,000 $180,000 $110,000 $ 0 AVERAGE MARKET $240,000 $ 90,000 $ 60,0 00 $ 0 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 P A. 2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station.Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET ($) 10,000 20,000 40,000 160,000 a) b) c) d) e) For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000.Develop a decision table for this decision. What is the maximax decision? What is the maximin decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each ou tcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV. Clay Whybark, a soft-drink vendor at Hard Rock Cafe’s annual Rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock BIG $22,000 $14,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $4,000P A. 3 If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a big demand, 0. 5 for an average demand, and 0. 2 for a small demand, determine the alternative that provides Clay Whybark the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). P A. 4 For Problem A. 3, compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). *Note: OM; and means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows; means the problem may be solved with Excel P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM. 686 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S H. Weiss, Inc. is considering building a sensitive new airport scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0. 4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss’s expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000.Determine the EMV of each decision. For Problem A. 5, compute the expected value of perfect information. The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand at Amber Gardner’s software firm: DEMAND LOW Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 $10,000 $ 5,000 $ 2,000 HIGH $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 P A. 5 P P A. 6 A. 7 a) b) c) The probability of low demand is 0. 4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0. 6. What is the highest possible expected monetary value? What is the expected value under certainty?Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation. Leah Johnson, director of Legal Services of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide free legal advice but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time lawyer or by using part-time lawyers. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Hire full-time Hire part-time Probabilities LOW DEMAND $300 $ 0 . 2 MEDIUM DEMAND $500 $350 . 5 HIGH DEMAND $ 700 $1,000 . 3 P A. 8 Using expected value, what should Ms.Johnson do? P A. 9 Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a family of new products. Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat predictable, so the manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosin g a process that is inappropriate. Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose among batch manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in group technology. Chen won’t be able to forecast demand accurately until after he makes the process choice. Demand will be classified into four compartments: poor, fair, good, and excellent.The table below indicates the payoffs (profits) associated with each process/demand combination, as well as the probabilities of each long-term demand level. POOR Probability Batch Custom Group technology a) b) . 1 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $1,000,000 FAIR . 4 $1,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 500,000 GOOD . 3 $1,200,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 EXCELLENT . 2 $1,300,000 $ 800,000 $2,000,000 Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest gain? What would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast that would accurately determine the level of demand in the future?Julie Resler’s company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet incre asing demand. If demand is high in the future, a major expansion will result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low there will be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, a minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, there will be a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50% chance demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize long-run average profits? P A. 10 P RO B L E M S 87 P A. 11 The University of Dallas bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 90 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Curtis Ketterman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Curtis believes that the distribution of sales may range from 70 to 90 units, according to the foll owing probability model: Demand Probability 70 . 15 75 . 30 80 . 30 85 . 0 90 . 05 a) b) This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $36. Construct the table of conditional profits. How many copies should the bookstore stock to achieve highest expected value? Palmer Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One product is a cheese spread sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 6 cases is . , for 7 cases it is . 3, for 8 cases it is . 5, and for 9 cases it is . 1. The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $95. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. How many cases should Susan manufacture each month? Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dak ota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could lose $180,000.At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision?Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Karen Villagomez, president of Wright Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in the Ozarks. Her decision is summarized in the following table: ALTERNATIVES Build large plant Build small plant Don’t build Market probabilities FAVORABLE MARKET $400,000 $ 80,000 $ 0 0. 4 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 0. 6 P A. 12 A. 13 P A. 14 a) b) c) A. 15 Construct a decision tree. Determine the best strategy using expected monetary value (EMV). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: PERCENT DEFECTIVE 1 3 5 PROBABILITY LOOMBA TECHNOLOGY . 70 . 20 . 10 PROBABILITY STEWART-DOUGLAS ENTERPRISES . 30 . 30 . 40 FOR FOR a) b) For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Loomba Technology is . 70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a . 7 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Loomba Technolo gy is used to fill the order.A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0. 50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Stewart-Douglas Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Loomba. Develop a decision tree. Which supplier should Kellogg use? 688 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).STATES OF NATURE (SIZE OF CROWD) ALTERNATIVES Large inventory Average inventory Small inventory LARGE $20,000 $15,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $10,000 $12,000 $ 6,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $5,000 P A. 16 a) b) If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a large crowd, 0. 5 for an average crowd, and 0. 2 for a small crowd, determine: The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). The e xpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort. The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather.At the resort, his profit will be $120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather. Construct Joseph’s decision tree. What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion? Kenneth Boyer is considering opening a bicycle shop in North Chicago. Boyer enjoys biking, but this is to be a business endeavor from which he expects to make a living. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all.Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Boyer is thinking about using, he wants to make sure he makes the correct decision. Boyer is also thinking about hiring his old market ing professor to conduct a marketing research study to see if there is a market for his services. The results of such a study could be either favorable or unfavorable. Develop a decision tree for Boyer. Kenneth Boyer (of Problem A. 18) has done some analysis of his bicycle shop decision. If he builds a large shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable; he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable.A small shop will return a $30,000 profit with a favorable market and a $10,000 loss if the market is unfavorable. At the present time, he believes that there is a 50-50 chance of a favorable market. His former marketing professor, Y. L. Yang, will charge him $5,000 for the market research. He has estimated that there is a . 6 probability that the market survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a . 9 probability that the market will be favorable given a favorable outcome of the study. However, Yang has warned Boyer that there is a probability of only . 12 of a favorabl e market if the marketing research results are not favorable.Expand the decision tree of Problem A. 18 to help Boyer decide what to do. Dick Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his drugstore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small.With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is . 7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probabil ity of a favorable rental market to . 9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to . 4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Holliday? P A. 17 a) b) A. 18 A. 19 A. 20 A. 21 a) b) A. 22 Problem A. dealt with a decision facing Legal Services of Brookline. Using the data in that problem, provide: The appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. The best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The city of Segovia is contemplating building a second airport to relieve congestion at the main airport and is considering two potential sites, X and Y. Hard Rock Hotels would like to purchase land to build a hotel at the new airport. The value of land has been rising in anticipation and is expected to skyrocket once the city decides between sites X and Y. Consequently, Hard Rock would like to purchase land now.Hard Rock will sell the la nd if the city chooses not to locate the airport nearby. Hard Rock has four choices: (1) buy land at X, (2) buy land at Y, (3) buy land at both X and Y, or (4) do nothing. Hard Rock has collected the following data (which are in millions of euros): SITE X Current purchase price Profits if airport and hotel built at this site Sales price if airport not built at this site 27 45 9 SITE Y 15 30 6 a) b) Hard Rock determines there is a 45% chance the airport will be built at X (hence, a 55% chance it will be built at Y). Set up the decision table. What should Hard Rock decide to do to maximize total net profit?C A S E S T U DY A. 23 689 Louisiana is busy designing new lottery â€Å"scratch-off† games. In the latest game, Bayou Boondoggle, the player is instructed to scratch off one spot: A, B, or C. A can reveal â€Å"Loser, † â€Å"Win $1,† or â€Å"Win $50. † B can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Take a Second Chance. † C can reveal â€Å"Loserâ⠂¬  or â€Å"Win $500. † On the second chance, the player is instructed to scratch off D or E. D can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $1. † E can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $10. † The probabilities at A are . 9, . 09, and . 01. The probabilities at B are . 8 and . 2. The probabilities at C are . 999 and . 001. The probabilities at D are . 5 and . 5.Finally, the probabilities at E are . 95 and . 05. Draw the decision tree that represents this scenario. Use proper symbols and label all branches clearly. Calculate the expected value of this game. INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional homework problems: A. 24 through A. 31. CASE STUDY Tom Tucker’s Liver Transplant Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker ’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tucker’s age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. Discussion Q uestions 1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered? CASE STUDY Ski Right Corp. After retiring as a physician, Bob Guthrie became an avid downhill skier on the steep slopes of the Utah Rocky Mountains.As an amateur inventor, Bob was always looking for something new. With the recent deaths of several celebrity skiers, Bob knew he could use his creative mind to make skiing safer and his bank account larger. He knew that many deaths on the slopes were caused by head injuries. Although ski helmets have been on the market for some time, most skiers consider them boring and basically ugly. As a physician, Bob knew that some type of new ski helmet was the answer. Bob’s biggest challenge was to invent a helmet that was attractive, safe, and fun to wear.Multiple colors and using the latest fashion designs would be musts. After years of skiing, Bob knew that many skiers believe that how you look on the slopes is more im portant than how you ski. His helmets would have to look good and fit in with current fashion trends. But attractive helmets were not enough. Bob had to make the helmets fun and useful. The name of the new ski helmet, Ski Right, was sure to be a winner. If Bob could come up with a good idea, he believed that there was a 20% chance that the market for the Ski Right helmet would be excellent. The chance of a good market should be 40%.Bob also knew that the market for his helmet could be only average (30% chance) or even poor (10% chance). The idea of how to make ski helmets fun and useful came to Bob on a gondola ride to the top of a mountain. A busy executive on the gondola ride was on his cell phone trying to complete a complicated merger. When the executive got off the gondola, he dropped the phone and it was crushed by the gondola mechanism. Bob decided that his new ski helmet would have a built-in cell phone and an AM/FM stereo radio. All the electronics could be operated by a co ntrol pad worn on a skier’s arm or leg.Bob decided to try a small pilot project for Ski Right. He enjoyed being retired and didn’t want a failure to cause him to go back to work. After some research, Bob found Progressive Products (PP). The company was willing to be a partner in developing the Ski Right and sharing any profits. If the market was excellent, Bob would net $5,000 per month. With a good market, Bob would net $2,000. An average market would result in a loss of $2,000, and a poor market would mean Bob would be out $5,000 per month. Another option for Bob was to have Leadville Barts (LB) make the helmet.The company had extensive experience in making bicycle helmets. Progressive would then take the helmets made by Leadville Barts and do the rest. Bob had a greater risk. He estimated that he could lose $10,000 per month in a poor market or $4,000 in an average market. A good market for Ski Right would result in $6,000 profit for Bob, and an excellent market wou ld mean a $12,000 profit per month. (continued) 690 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Cellular to make the phones, and TalRad to make the AM/FM stereo radios. Bob could then hire some friends to assemble everything and market the finishedSki Right helmets. With this final alternative, Bob could realize a net profit of $55,000 a month in an excellent market. Even if the market was just good, Bob would net $20,000. An average market, however, would mean a loss of $35,000. If the market was poor Bob would lose $60,000 per month. A third option for Bob was to use TalRad (TR), a radio company in Tallahassee, Florida. TalRad had extensive experience in making military radios. Leadville Barts could make the helmets, and Progressive Products could do the rest of production and distribution. Again, Bob would be taking on greater risk.A poor market would mean a $15,000 loss per month, and an average market would mean a $10,000 loss. A good market would result in a net profit of $7,000 for Bob. An excellent market would return $13,000 per month. Bob could also have Celestial Cellular (CC) develop the cell phones. Thus, another option was to have Celestial make the phones and have Progressive do the rest of the production and distribution. Because the cell phone was the most expensive component of the helmet, Bob could lose $30,000 per month in a poor market. He could lose $20,000 in an average market.If the market was good or excellent, Bob would see a net profit of $10,000 or $30,000 per month, respectively. Bob’s final option was to forget about Progressive Products entirely. He could use Leadville Barts to make the helmets, Celestial Discussion Questions 1. What do you recommend? 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information. 3. Was Bob completely logical in how he approached this decision problem? Source: B. Render, R. M. Stair, and M. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N. J. : Prentice Hall (2006). Re printed by permission of Prentice Hall, Inc.ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional free case studies: †¢ Arctic, Inc. : A refrigeration company has several major options with regard to capacity and expansion. †¢ Toledo Leather Company: This firm is trying to select new equipment based on potential costs. BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, R. V. â€Å"The State of the Art of Decision Analysis. † Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 5–14. 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