Relationship between literature, ehnicity and immigration Essay

Relationship between literature, ehnicity and immigration - Essay Example It is an observation that since ancient times, immigration remained a major activity of humans around the globe who used to travel from one region to another in search of food, shelter, employment, and several other facilities. In the result, this activity has enjoyed significant importance in every aspect of human life, and that is observable in huge amount of literature that indicates significance of immigration and its effects on different aspects of societies globally. This briefly allows the researcher to identify the relationship between immigration and literature, as the later one has always played the role of providing commentary regarding different cultural and social aspects related to the process of immigration during different eras. In addition, it is an understanding that literature has also been responsible for promoting or discouraging immigration in certain regions, and thus, both enjoy a strong relationship with each other. On the other hand, ethnicity is another imperative notion of human society that refers to the social concept that enables individuals or a group of people to identify each other based on language, culture, or ideology. In particular, analysis (Suls, pp. 33-38) has indicated that literature has been an important factor when it comes to ethnicity, as ethnic groups consider literature as one of their fundamental evidences to prove their ethnicity, and thus, literature and ethnicity exist in an interconnecting relationship with each other. Moreover, if one looks at the relationship of ethnicity and immigration, scrutiny of different sources has pointed out that immigration plays a crucial role in determining ethnicity of different group of people. For instance, when a group of people migrates from one country to another reason for any particular reason, the future generations of same group identify themselves in midst of two ethnicities, one existing in literature connecting them with th eir forefathers, and on the other hand, one existing in their society where they opened their eyes and grew up. In this regard, both literature and immigration are significant factors to contribute in alteration of ethnicity in a society, whereas, both immigration and ethnicity causes changes in literature, and similarly, literature and ethnicity has always become a reason of immigration in different parts of the globe. Therefore, it will be appropriate to state that all three notions of literature, ethnicity, and immigration enjoy a triangular relationship, where they interrelate with each other in different aspects. Examination of different sources (Suls, pp. 59-64) has indicated that literature related to immigration has always referred to historical and cultural models and techniques to understand its different features. In addition, literature and studies related to ethnicity have indicated dominance of similar models that indicates the relationship of the two with the literatu re. Another factor of their similar relationship with literature is their similar propensity towards ignoring social and cultural structures on micro or individual level. However, there have been instances where experts have suggested for a psychological scrutiny of different aspects of ethnicity and immigration and their impact on micro level; however, results have pointed out that both exist on macro level, and thus, majority of literature has indicated their construction as a macro component of human society. In order to understand the relationship of literature, ethnicity, and immigration further, the paper will now include analysis of the relationship based on theory of social identity by Tajfel (pp. 23-25) that will be effective in

The Recycling Of Plastic Waste Environmental Sciences Essay

The Recycling Of Plastic Waste Environmental Sciences Essay When you think about the huge amounts of plastics we produce and the problems that can occur when we try to Disposal of plastic, it makes sense to reuse or recycle what we can. Recycling: means making new things from items that have been used and are not need any more. Steps to recycling First, depolymerization is the step of transfer a polymer in a mixture of monomers. Second, thermal depolymerization is a depolymerization step using hydrous pyrolysis for the reduction of complex organic materials (often waste products of various sorts, often biomass and plastic) in a light crude oil.Third, the heat compression process have taken all unsorted, cleaned plastic in all forms, from soft plastic bags to hard industrial waste. The Applications in plastics tybes. (PET) are recycled to reuse the material out of which they are made and to reduce the amount of waste going to landfills. (PVC) is a thermoplastic polymer. (HDPE) The most-often recycled plastic. (HDPE) came from petroleum. (Other plastics)The white plastic foam peanuts used as packing material are often accepted by shipping stores for use it again.Finlly Example Items Recycling,Recycle Plastic Bags. Recycle Plastic Coat Hangers. Recycle Plastic Bottles .Recycle All Other Plastic Waste. The Effect of Recycling Plastics on the Environment # Resource Conservation Recycling plastic bottles assists to conserve natural resources, specially oil, that is nonrenewable natural resource obtainable only in limited provide recycling one ton of plastic can conserves around 3.8 barrels of oil according to the Environmental Protection Agency . 2.12 millions of plastic was recycled in 2008 which is equivalent to approximately 7.6 million barrels of oil. # Energy Conservation. The process of finding new materials from existing materials need much less energy than what is needed for rare materials. Recycling one pound of the most common plastic used in water bottles called polyethylene terephthalate (PET) can conserve around 12,000 British thermal units of heat energy according to the Environmental Protection Agency . the process of recycle needs less energy by two- third than usual manufacturing . which help in reducing the damage of the usual power grid. That depend on burning fossil fuels. # Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions The process of producing plastic is able to increase the greenhouse gasses in air like carbon dioxide. Which is known as a major reason of global warming . because recycling plastic require less energy and fossil fuels it result in reducing greenhouse gas revival . The Environmental Protection Agency foredoomed that each family can help to reduce its production of carbon dioxide by the average of 340 pounds yearly . just by reuse the plastic things # Decreased Pollution besides reducing greenhouse gasses . recycled plastic can decrease the amount of pollutants in air and water . in addition many of landfill operations will burn the plastic bottles to keep waste that is able to secreted toxic pollutants and other materials that irritants into the atmosphere . the plastic resin is useful to produce water bottles. Besides it contain unsafe chemicals Challenges of recycling Recycled the Plastics have a low entropy of mixing. A macromolecule of plastic interacts with its environment along its entire length. Also In most places, plastics are collected for recycling. It is not easy to recycle plastics because the different kinds of plastic must first be sorted out. Mixed plastic connot be used for recycling.In addaion, some people donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t suport gaverment so they didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t put kind of plastic in the right place!!. In Germany and some parts of the United stats, you pay a deposit when you buy a full plastic bottle. When you take your empty plastic bottle back to the shop, you get the deposit back. This encourages people to return their emptyplastic bottles and not just throw them away. The shops then return the bottles to the company that made them for refilling. Another solution to reduce using of plastic Many scientists and governments are working together to find ways to stop using plastic. In Bangladesh the government prohibited the plastic bags completely. In 2002 Ireland imposed taxes for using plastic bags about 0.15 EUR per bag that helped to reduce the usage of plastic bags by 90 percent .besides , they gain 1 million dollar as a revenue. But as individual we can take the lead to reduce usage of plastic by several steps such as: we can use reusable bags which have a various shapes, designs and sizes, when you donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t use it you can rolled and put it in your pocket. Another way you can use reusable water bottles which made of recycled materials that can last for a long time and be recycled once again also we can use glass bottles instead of plastic bottles which is reusable. Also the number of Disposable Diapers used nowadays is very huge, and it cost around $300 million yearly to decompose single use diapers . so families can use for their kids Disposable Diaper s that made of wood base instead of the once with plastic base because it is going to decompose later so it will not cause environmental problems and it cost less than the plastic once. However, good cooperation between the people and government and the countries will lead to better results . Conclusion This report is concerned with the complex question of dealing with plastic waste. There are dozens of different plastics in common use, and many products are made from a mixture of these. However , people dont really care about throwing plastics away as they are not expensive. The Previous pages introduced and discussed ideas such as source reduction of waste, degradability of plastic, and the impact on environment and human ,which all inter-relate with the central issue of plastic pollution. In addition, the report provided overview of the facts and issues involved, together with examples from around the world which demonstrate how progress is being made in effective waste management and production of brand new plastics is less cost. It must be emphasized that plastic waste recycling and management are not merely the concern of large-scale schemes and companies. Every individual one of us can take action to deal effectively with plastic waste in our lives, and in this small way make an essential contribution towards improving our environment by put our own selfish needs before the needs of everything around us now and the lives of future generations.

Hypoxia-mediated Selection of Cells with Diminished Apoptotic Potential

Cancer: Necrosis vs. Apoptosis Cancer is the second leading cause of death in humans. A cancer cell is a cell that has mutated from its original form and will often grow at a more rapid rate than normal. The body has built certain mechanisms to protect itself from these types of cells. One of the physiological processes the body uses to kill off these cells is apoptosis. Apoptosis is sometimes called "cell suicide". When the body detects that a cell's DNA has mutated and cannot be repaired, the cell will somehow trigger itself to self destruct. Up until 1972, scientists hadn't really looked carefully at how cells die. Once they did, it was apparent that two things could happen: necrosis or apoptosis. Necrosis was the term used to describe all cells that had died. However scientists have found that necrosis and apoptosis are two different processes. Necrosis is a result of outside forces acting upon a cell, causing it's destruction. Upon destruction of the cell in this manner, the internal contents of the cell are leaked into the local environment, which can be extremely harmful. In contrast, a cell dying by apoptosis does not release it's contents and potentially harm neighboring cells. Apoptosis is actually an active process within the cell. A process triggers some other process (which is not quite clear) inside the cell and tells the cell to start disassembling itself. When this happens, instead of releasing harmful chemicals into its environment, the cell is thought to send parts of itself to other surrounding cells to digest it. Roles of p53 and bcl-2 in Apoptosis The authors above and other scientists believe that the expression of the p53 gene is required for apoptosis. The p53 gene has been labeled as the tumour su... ... increases as oxygen is reduced, those cells with mutated p53 have a slower increase in death rate in hypoxic regions, compared to those cells that have normal p53 expression. This seems to point to the fact that the hypoxic regions are actually setting up a natural selection for the p53 deficient cells, and possibly other mutations resistant to death. Treatment Problems This can cause a problem when treating these cells with radiation and chemotherapy. These treatments attack the cells and attempt to destroy the DNA within the cell. This will usually cause an increase in the rate of apoptosis within the area treated. However if the cells in the area have built up a resistance to apoptosis they have built up an effective resistance to the chemotherapy and radiation. These facts could explain why the p53 gene is the most commonly mutated gene in human cancer.

Decision Making Tools

P A R T I V QUANTITATIVE MODULES Quantitative Module Decision-Making Tools A Module OutlineTHE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING DECISION TABLES TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS Decision Making Under Uncertainty Decision Making Under Risk Decision Making Under Certainty Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) DECISION TREES A More Complex Decision Tree Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making SUMMARY KEY TERMS USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS SOLVED PROBLEMS INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES DISCUSSION QUESTIONS PROBLEMS INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS CASE STUDIES: TOM TUCKER’S LIVER TRANSPLANT; SKI RIGHT CORP. ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES BIBLIOGRAPHY L EARNING O BJECTIVESWhen you complete this module you should be able to IDENTIFY OR DEFINE: Decision trees and decision tables Highest monetary value Expected value of perfect information Sequential decisions DESCRIBE OR EXPLAIN: Decision making under risk Decision making under uncerta inty Decision making under certainty 674 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The wildcatter’s decision was a tough one. Which of his new Kentucky lease areas—Blair East or Blair West—should he drill for oil? A wrong decision in this type of wildcat oil drilling could mean the difference between success and bankruptcy for the company.Talk about decision making under uncertainty and pressure! But using a decision tree, Tomco Oil President Thomas E. Blair identified 74 different options, each with its own potential net profit. What had begun as an overwhelming number of geological, engineering, economic, and political factors now became much clearer. Says Blair, â€Å"Decision tree analysis provided us with a systematic way of planning these decisions and clearer insight into the numerous and varied financial outcomes that are possible. †1 â€Å"The business executive is by profession a decision maker. Uncertainty is his opponent. Overcoming it is his mission. † John McDonaldOperations managers are decision makers. To achieve the goals of their organizations, managers must understand how decisions are made and know which decision-making tools to use. To a great extent, the success or failure of both people and companies depends on the quality of their decisions. Bill Gates, who developed the DOS and Windows operating systems, became chairman of the most powerful software firm in the world (Microsoft) and a billionaire. In contrast, the Firestone manager who headed the team that designed the flawed tires that caused so many accidents with Ford Explorers in the late 1990s is not working there anymore.THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS What makes the difference between a good decision and a bad decision? A â€Å"good† decision—one that uses analytic decision making—is based on logic and considers all available data and possible alternatives. It also follows these six steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Clearly define the problem and the factors that influence it. Develop specific and measurable objectives. Develop a model—that is, a relationship between objectives and variables (which are measurable quantities). Evaluate each alternative solution based on its merits and drawbacks.Select the best alternative. Implement the decision and set a timetable for completion. Throughout this book, we have introduced a broad range of mathematical models and tools to help operations managers make better decisions. Effective operations depend on careful decision making. Fortunately, there are a whole variety of analytic tools to help make these decisions. This modHosseini, â€Å"Decision Analysis and Its Application in the Choice between Two Wildcat Ventures,† Interfaces, Vol. 16, no. 2. Reprinted by permission, INFORMS, 901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400, Linthicum, Maryland 21090 USA. J. D E C I S I O N TA B L E S â€Å"Management means, in the last analysis, the substitution of th ought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folklore and tradition, and of cooperation for force. † Peter Drucker 675 ule introduces two of them—decision tables and decision trees. They are used in a wide number of OM situations, ranging from new-product analysis (Chapter 5), to capacity planning (Supplement 7), to location planning (Chapter 8), to scheduling (Chapter 15), and to maintenance planning (Chapter 17). FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKINGRegardless of the complexity of a decision or the sophistication of the technique used to analyze it, all decision makers are faced with alternatives and â€Å"states of nature. † The following notation will be used in this module: 1. Terms: a. Alternative—a course of action or strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker (for example, not carrying an umbrella tomorrow). b. State of nature—an occurrence or a situation over which the decision maker has little or no control (for example, tomorrow’s w eather). Symbols used in a decision tree: a. —decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected. b. —a state-of-nature node out of which one state of nature will occur. 2. To present a manager’s decision alternatives, we can develop decision trees using the above symbols. When constructing a decision tree, we must be sure that all alternatives and states of nature are in their correct and logical places and that we include all possible alternatives and states of nature. Example A1 A simple decision tree Getz Products Company is investigating the possibility of producing and marketing backyard storage sheds.Undertaking this project would require the construction of either a large or a small manufacturing plant. The market for the product produced—storage sheds—could be either favorable or unfavorable. Getz, of course, has the option of not developing the new product line at all. A decision tree for this situation is presented in F igure A. 1. A decision node A state of nature node Favorable market 1 Unfavorable market Favorable market 2 Unfavorable market no thi ng uct t str on plan C e g lar Construct small plant Do FIGURE A. 1 I Getz Products Decision Tree DECISION TABLES Decision tableA tabular means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. We may also develop a decision or payoff table to help Getz Products define its alternatives. For any alternative and a particular state of nature, there is a consequence or outcome, which is usually expressed as a monetary value. This is called a conditional value. Note that all of the alternatives in Example A2 are listed down the left side of the table, that states of nature (outcomes) are listed across the top, and that conditional values (payoffs) are in the body of the decision table. 676 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L SWe construct a decision table for Getz Products (Table A. 1), including conditional values based on the following i nformation. With a favorable market, a large facility will give Getz Products a net profit of $200,000. If the market is unfavorable, a $180,000 net loss will occur. A small plant will result in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, but a net loss of $20,000 will be encountered if the market is unfavorable. Example A2 A decision table TABLE A. 1 I Decision Table with Conditional Values for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES The toughest part of decision tables is getting the data to analyze.Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothing STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 In Examples A3 and A4, we see how to use decision tables. TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS The types of decisions people make depend on how much knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three decision-making environments: †¢ †¢ †¢ Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under risk Decision m aking under certainty Decision Making Under UncertaintyWhen there is complete uncertainty as to which state of nature in a decision environment may occur (that is, when we cannot even assess probabilities for each possible outcome), we rely on three decision methods: Maximax A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome. Maximin A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome. Equally likely A criterion that assigns equal probability to each state of nature. Maximax—this method finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.First, we find the maximum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative with the highest possible gain, it has been called an â€Å"optimistic† decision criterion. 2. Maximin—this method finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome for every altern ative. First, we find the minimum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative that has the least possible loss, it has been called a â€Å"pessimistic† decision criterion. . Equally likely—this method finds the alternative with the highest average outcome. First, we calculate the average outcome for every alternative, which is the sum of all outcomes divided by the number of outcomes. We then pick the alternative with the maximum number. The equally likely approach assumes that each state of nature is equally likely to occur. Example A3 applies each of these approaches to the Getz Products Company. 1. Example A3 A decision table analysis under uncertainty Given Getz’s decision table of Example A2, determine the maximax, maximin, nd equally likely decision criteria (see Table A. 2). TABLE A. 2 I Decision Table for Decision Making under Uncertainty STATES OF NAT URE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MARKET MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 MAXIMUM IN ROW $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 Maximax MINIMUM IN ROW $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 Maximin ROW AVERAGE $10,000 $40,000 $ 0 Equally likely ALTERNATIVES There are optimistic decision makers (â€Å"maximax†) and pessimistic ones (â€Å"maximin†). Maximax and maximin present best case–worst case planning scenarios. Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothingTYPES 1. 2. 3. OF D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G E N V I RO N M E N T S 677 The maximax choice is to construct a large plant. This is the maximum of the maximum number within each row, or alternative. The maximin choice is to do nothing. This is the maximum of the minimum number within each row, or alternative. The equally likely choice is to construct a small plant. This is the maximum of the average outcome of each alternative. This approach assumes that all outcomes for any alternative are equally likely. Decision Making Under Risk Expected monetary value (EMV)The expected payout or value of a variable that has different possible states of nature, each with an associated probability. Decision making under risk, a more common occurrence, relies on probabilities. Several possible states of nature may occur, each with an assumed probability. The states of nature must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive and their probabilities must sum to 1. 2 Given a decision table with conditional values and probability assessments for all states of nature, we can determine the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.This figure represents the expected value or mean return for each alternative if we could repeat the decision a large number of times. The EMV for an alternative is the sum of all possible payoffs from the alternative, each weighted by the probability of that payoff occurring. EMV (Alternative i ) = ( Payoff of 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Payoff of 2nd state of nature) ? (Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Payoff of last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) Example A4 illustrates how to compute the maximum EMV. Example A4Expected monetary value Excel OM Data File ModAEx4. xla Getz Products operations manager believes that the probability of a favorable market is exactly the same as that of an unfavorable market; that is, each state of nature has a . 50 chance of occurring. We can now determine the EMV for each alternative (see Table A. 3): 1. 2. 3. EMV(A1) = (. 5)($200,000) + (. 5)( $180,000) = $10,000 EMV(A2) = (. 5)($100,000) + (. 5)( $20,000) = $40,000 EMV(A3) = (. 5)($0) + (. 5)($0) = $0 The maximum EMV is seen in alternative A2. Thus, according to the EMV decision criterion, Getz would build the small facility. TABLE A. I Decision Table for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES Construct large plant (A1) Construct small plant (A2) Do nothing (A3) Probabilities STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORA BLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 . 50 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 . 50 Decision Making Under Certainty Now suppose that the Getz operations manager has been approached by a marketing research firm that proposes to help him make the decision about whether to build the plant to produce storage sheds. The marketing researchers claim that their technical analysis will tell Getz with certainty whether the market is favorable for the proposed product.In other words, it will change Getz’s environment from one of decision making under risk to one of decision making under certainty. This information could prevent Getz from making a very expensive mistake. The marketing research firm would charge Getz $65,000 for the information. What would you recommend? Should the operations manager hire the firm to make the study? Even if the information from the study is perfectly accurate, is it worth $65,000? What might it be worth? Although some of these questions are difficult to answer, 2To EVPI pla ces an upper limit on what you should pay for information. eview these and other statistical terms, refer to the CD-ROM Tutorial 1, â€Å"Statistical Review for Managers. † 678 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S determining the value of such perfect information can be very useful. It places an upper bound on what you would be willing to spend on information, such as that being sold by a marketing consultant. This is the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which we now introduce. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) The difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk.If a manager were able to determine which state of nature would occur, then he or she would know which decision to make. Once a manager knows which decision to make, the payoff increases because the payoff is now a certainty, not a probability. Because the payoff will increase with knowledge of which state of nature will occur, this knowledge has value. Therefore, we now look at how to determine the value of this information. We call this difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). EVPI = Expected value under certainty Maximum EMVExpected value under certainty The expected (average) return if perfect information is available. To find the EVPI, we must first compute the expected value under certainty, which is the expected (average) return if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made. To calculate this value, we choose the best alternative for each state of nature and multiply its payoff times the probability of occurrence of that state of nature. Expected value under certainty = (Best outcome or consequence for 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Best outcome for 2nd state of nature) ? Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Best outcome for last state o f nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) In Example A5 we use the data and decision table from Example A4 to examine the expected value of perfect information. Example A5 Expected value of perfect information By referring back to Table A. 3, the Getz operations manager can calculate the maximum that he would pay for information—that is, the expected value of perfect information, or EVPI. He follows a two-stage process. First, the expected value under certainty is computed. Then, using this information, EVPI is calculated.The procedure is outlined as follows: 1. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"favorable market† is â€Å"build a large facility† with a payoff of $200,000. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"unfavorable market† is â€Å"do nothing† with a payoff of $0. Expected value under certainty = ($200,000)(0. 50) + ($0)(0. 50) = $100,000. Thus, if we had perfect information, we would expect (on the average) $100 ,000 if the decision could be repeated many times. The maximum EMV is $40,000, which is the expected outcome without perfect information. Thus: EVPI = Expected value under certainty ? Maximum EMV = $100, 000 ? 40, 000 = $60, 000 In other words, the most Getz should be willing to pay for perfect information is $60,000. This conclusion, of course, is again based on the assumption that the probability of each state of nature is 0. 50. 2. DECISION TREES Decisions that lend themselves to display in a decision table also lend themselves to display in a decision tree. We will therefore analyze some decisions using decision trees. Although the use of a decision table is convenient in problems having one set of decisions and one set of states of nature, many problems include sequential decisions and states of nature.When there are two or more sequential decisions, and later decisions are based on the outcome of prior ones, the decision tree approach becomes appropriate. A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Expected monetary value (EMV) is the most commonly used criterion for decision tree analysis. One of the first steps in such analysis is to graph the decision tree and to specify the monetary consequences of all outcomes for a particular problem.Decision tree A graphical means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. DECISION TREES Decision tree software is a relatively new advance that permits users to solve decisionanalysis problems with flexibility, power, and ease. Programs such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree allow decision problems to be analyzed with less effort and in greater depth than ever before. Full-color presentations of the options open to managers always have impact. In this photo, wildcat drilling options are explored with DPL, a product of Syn copation Software. 679 Analyzing problems with decision trees involves five steps: 1. 2. . 4. 5. Define the problem. Structure or draw the decision tree. Assign probabilities to the states of nature. Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values (EMV) for each state-of-nature node. This is done by working backward—that is, by starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left. Example A6 Solving a tree for EMV A completed and solved decision tree for Getz Products is presented in Figure A. 2. Note that the payoffs are placed at the right-hand side of each of the tree’s branches.The probabilities (first used by Getz in Example A4) are placed in parentheses next to each state of nature. The expected monetary values for each state-ofnature node are then calculated and placed by their respective nodes. The EMV of the first node is $10,000. T his represents the branch from the decision node to â€Å"construct a large plant. † The EMV for node 2, to â€Å"construct a small plant,† is $40,000. The option of â€Å"doing nothing† has, of course, a payoff of $0. The branch leaving the decision node leading to the state-of-nature node with the highest EMV will be chosen. In Getz’s case, a small plant should be built.EMV for node 1 = $10,000 = (. 5) ($200,000) + (. 5) (–$180,000) Payoffs Favorable market (. 5) $200,000 Co n ct stru e larg pla nt 1 Unfavorable market (. 5) Favorable market (. 5) 2 Unfavorable market (. 5) –$ 20,000 –$180,000 $100,000 Construct small plant Do no th in g EMV for node 2 = $40,000 = (. 5) ($100,000) + (. 5) (–$20,000) $0 FIGURE A. 2 I Completed and Solved Decision Tree for Getz Products 680 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S A More Complex Decision Tree There is a widespread use of decision trees beyond OM. Managers often appreciat e a graphical display of a tough problem.When a sequence of decisions must be made, decision trees are much more powerful tools than are decision tables. Let’s say that Getz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. Before deciding about building a new plant, Getz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey, at a cost of $10,000. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Getz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.Getz’s new decision tree is represented in Figure A. 3 of Example A7. Take a careful look at this more complex tree. Note that all possible outcomes and alternatives are included in their logical sequence. This procedure is one of the strengths of using decision trees. The manager is forced to examine all possible outcom es, including unfavorable ones. He or she is also forced to make decisions in a logical, sequential manner. Examining the tree in Figure A. 3, we see that Getz’s first decision point is whether to conduct the $10,000 market survey.If it chooses not to do the study (the lower part of the tree), it can either build a large plant, a small plant, or no plant. This is Getz’s second decision point. If the decision is to build, the market will be either favorable (. 50 probability) or unfavorable (also . 50 probability). The payoffs for each of the possible consequences are listed along the right-hand side. As a matter of fact, this lower portion of Getz’s tree is identical to the simpler decision tree shown in Figure A. 2. Example A7 A decision tree with sequential decisions First Decision Point Second Decision Point $106,400 Favorable market (. 8) nt Payoffs $190,000 2 $49,200 1 Su re rve fav sult y (. 4 ora s 5) ble $106,400 la –$190,000 ep $63,600 Favorable market (. 78) arg L $ 90,000 Small 3 Unfavorable market(. 22) plant –$ 30,000 No pla nt –$ 10,000 Unfavorable market (. 22) vey –$87,400 Favorable market (. 27) pla nt $190,000 –$190,000 $ 90,000 –$ 30,000 –$ 10,000 y( rve Su ults e res ativ g ne t sur 4 Unfavorable market (. 73) (. 27) .55 arke $2,400 Con duct m L e arg $2,400 Favorable market 5 ) Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 73) No pla $49,200 $40,000 FIGURE A. 3 I Getz Products Decision Tree with Probabilities and EMVs ShownThe short parallel lines mean â€Å"prune† that branch, as it is less favorable than another available option and may be dropped. Do t no co nd uc ts ur ve y $10,000 Favorable market pla nt (. 5) $200,000 –$180,000 $100,000 –$ 20,000 $0 6 Unfavorable market (. 5) (. 5) L e arg $40,000 Favorable market 7 Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 5) No pla DECISION TREES You can reduce complexity by viewing and solving a number of smaller treesâ⠂¬â€ start at the end branches of a large one. Take one decision at a time. 681 The upper part of Figure A. 3 reflects the decision to conduct the market survey.State-of-nature node number 1 has 2 branches coming out of it. Let us say there is a 45% chance that the survey results will indicate a favorable market for the storage sheds. We also note that the probability is . 55 that the survey results will be negative. The rest of the probabilities shown in parentheses in Figure A. 3 are all conditional probabilities. For example, . 78 is the probability of a favorable market for the sheds given a favorable result from the market survey. Of course, you would expect to find a high probability of a favorable market given that the research indicated that the market was good.Don’t forget, though: There is a chance that Getz’s $10,000 market survey did not result in perfect or even reliable information. Any market research study is subject to error. In this case, there remai ns a 22% chance that the market for sheds will be unfavorable given positive survey results. Likewise, we note that there is a 27% chance that the market for sheds will be favorable given negative survey results. The probability is much higher, . 73, that the market will actually be unfavorable given a negative survey. Finally, when we look to the payoff column in Figure A. , we see that $10,000—the cost of the marketing study—has been subtracted from each of the top 10 tree branches. Thus, a large plant constructed in a favorable market would normally net a $200,000 profit. Yet because the market study was conducted, this figure is reduced by $10,000. In the unfavorable case, the loss of $180,000 would increase to $190,000. Similarly, conducting the survey and building no plant now results in a $10,000 payoff. With all probabilities and payoffs specified, we can start calculating the expected monetary value of each branch.We begin at the end or right-hand side of the decision tree and work back toward the origin. When we finish, the best decision will be known. 1. Given favorable survey results, EMV (node 2) = (. 78)($190, 000) + (. 22)( ? $190, 000) = $106, 400 EMV (node 3) = (. 78)($90, 000) + (. 22)( ? $30, 000) = $63,600 The EMV of no plant in this case is plant should be built. Given negative survey results, $10,000. Thus, if the survey results are favorable, a large 2. EMV (node 4) = (. 27)($190, 000) + (. 73)( ? $190, 000) = ? $87, 400 EMV (node 5) = (. 27)($90, 000) + (. 73)( ? $30, 000) = $2, 400 The EMV of no plant is again $10,000 for this branch.Thus, given a negative survey result, Getz should build a small plant with an expected value of $2,400. Continuing on the upper part of the tree and moving backward, we compute the expected value of conducting the market survey. EMV(node 1) = (. 45)($106,400) + (. 55)($2,400) = $49,200 4. If the market survey is not conducted. EMV (node 6) = (. 50)($200, 000) + (. 50)( ? $180, 000) = $10, 000 EMV (node 7) = (. 50)($100, 000) + (. 50)( ? $20, 000) = $40, 000 The EMV of no plant is $0. Thus, building a small plant is the best choice, given the marketing research is not performed.Because the expected monetary value of conducting the survey is $49,200—versus an EMV of $40,000 for not conducting the study—the best choice is to seek marketing information. If the survey results are favorable, Getz should build the large plant; if they are unfavorable, it should build the small plant. 3. 5. Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making Decision trees can also be a useful tool to aid ethical corporate decision making. The decision tree illustrated in Example A8, developed by Harvard Professor Constance Bagley, provides guidance as to how managers can both maximize shareholder value and behave ethically.The tree can be applied to any action a company contemplates, whether it is expanding operations in a developing country or reducing a workforce at home. 682 MODUL E A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Smithson Corp. is opening a plant in Malaysia, a country with much less stringent environmental laws than the U. S. , its home nation. Smithson can save $18 million in building the manufacturing facility—and boost its profits—if it does not install pollution-control equipment that is mandated in the U. S. but not in Malaysia.But Smithson also calculates that pollutants emitted from the plant, if unscrubbed, could damage the local fishing industry. This could cause a loss of millions of dollars in income as well as create health problems for local inhabitants. Example A8 Ethical decision making Action outcome Is it ethical? (Weigh the effect on employees, customers, suppliers, community versus shareholder benefit. ) Do it Ye s Ye No s Ye Is action legal? s Does action maximize company returns? Don't do it No No Is it ethical not to take action? (Weigh the harm to shareholders versus benefits to other stakeholders. Ye s Don't do it Do it, but notify appropriate parties Don't do it No FIGURE A. 4 I Smithson’s Decision Tree for Ethical Dilemma Source: Modified from Constance E. Bagley, â€Å"The Ethical Leader’s Decision Tree,† Harvard Business Review (January–February 2003): 18–19. Figure A. 4 outlines the choices management can consider. For example, if in management’s best judgment the harm to the Malaysian community by building the plant will be greater than the loss in company returns, the response to the question â€Å"Is it ethical? † will be no.Now, say Smithson proposes building a somewhat different plant, one with pollution controls, despite a negative impact on company returns. That decision takes us to the branch â€Å"Is it ethical not to take action? † If the answer (for whatever reason) is no, the decision tree suggests proceeding with the plant but notifying the Smithson Board, shareholders, and others about its impact. Ethical decisions can be quite complex: What happens, for example, if a company builds a polluting plant overseas, but this allows the company to sell a life-saving drug at a lower cost around the world?Does a decision tree deal with all possible ethical dilemmas? No—but it does provide managers with a framework for examining those choices. SUMMARY This module examines two of the most widely used decision techniques—decision tables and decision trees. These techniques are especially useful for making decisions under risk. Many decisions in research and development, plant and equipment, and even new buildings and structures can be analyzed with these decision models. Problems in inventory control, aggregate planning, maintenance, scheduling, and production control are just a few other decision table and decision tree applications.KEY TERMS Decision table (p. 675) Maximax (p. 676) Maximin (p. 676) Equally likely (p. 676) Expected monetary value (EMV) (p. 677) Expected value of perfect in formation (EVPI) (p. 678) Expected value under certainty (p. 678) Decision tree (p. 678) S O LV E D P RO B L E M S 683 USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS Analyzing decision tables is straightforward with Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows. When decision trees are involved, commercial packages such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree provide flexibility, power, and ease. POM for Windows will also analyze trees but does not have graphic capabilities.Using Excel OM Excel OM allows decision makers to evaluate decisions quickly and to perform sensitivity analysis on the results. Program A. 1 uses the Getz data to illustrate input, output, and selected formulas needed to compute the EMV and EVPI values. Compute the EMV for each alternative using = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B8:C8). = MIN(B8:C8) = MAX(B8:C8) Find the best outcome for each measure using = MAX(G8:G10). To calculate the EVPI, find the best outcome for each scenario. = MAX(B8:B10) = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B14:C14) = E14 – E11 PROG RAM A. I Using Excel OM to Compute EMV and Other Measures for Getz Using POM for Windows POM for Windows can be used to calculate all of the information described in the decision tables and decision trees in this module. For details on how to use this software, please refer to Appendix IV. SOLVED PROBLEMS Solved Problem A. 1 Stella Yan Hua is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all.The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are . 2 for a good market, . 5 for an average market, and . 3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? ALTERNATIVES Small sho p Medium-sized shop No shop Probabilities GOOD MARKET ($) 75,000 100,000 0 . 20 AVERAGE MARKET ($) 25,000 35,000 0 . 50 BAD MARKET ($) 40,000 60,000 0 . 30 684 MODULE A SolutionD E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The problem can be solved by computing the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative. EMV (Small shop) = (. 2)($75,000) + (. 5)($25,000) + (. 3)( $40,000) = $15,500 EMV (Medium-sized shop) = (. 2)($100,000) + (. 5)($35,000) + (. 3)( $60,000) = $19,500 EMV (No shop) = (. 2)($0) + (. 5)($0) + (. 3)($0) = $0 As you can see, the best decision is to build the medium-sized shop. The EMV for this alternative is $19,500. Solved Problem A. 2 Daily demand for cases of Tidy Bowl cleaner at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket has always been 5, 6, or 7 cases.Develop a decision tree that illustrates her decision alternatives as to whether to stock 5, 6, or 7 cases. Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases Solution The decision tree is shown in Figure A. 5. St oc k5 ca se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases oc k7 ca Stock 6 cases St se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases FIGURE A. 5 I Demand at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES Visit our Companion Web site or use your student CD-ROM to help with this material in this module. On Our Companion Web site, www. prenhall. com/heizer Self-Study Quizzes †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Internet Homework Problems †¢ Internet Cases On Your Student CD-ROM †¢ PowerPoint Lecture †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Excel OM †¢ Excel OM Example Data File †¢ POM for Windows DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Identify the six steps in the decision process. 2. Give an example of a good decision you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision you made that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad? 3. What is the equally likely decision model? 4. Discuss the differences between dec ision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty. . What is a decision tree? P RO B L E M S 6. Explain how decision trees might be used in several of the 10 OM decisions. 7. What is the expected value of perfect information? 8. What is the expected value under certainty? 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a problem using a decision tree. 10. Why are the maximax and maximin strategies considered to be optimistic and pessimistic, respectively? 685 11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk? 12.When are decision trees most useful? PROBLEMS* P A. 1 a) b) c) Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under uncertainty using: Maximax. Maximin. Equally likely. STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Build new plant Subcontract Overtime Do nothing VERY FAVORABLE MARKET $350,000 $180,000 $110,000 $ 0 AVERAGE MARKET $240,000 $ 90,000 $ 60,0 00 $ 0 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 P A. 2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station.Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET ($) 10,000 20,000 40,000 160,000 a) b) c) d) e) For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000.Develop a decision table for this decision. What is the maximax decision? What is the maximin decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each ou tcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV. Clay Whybark, a soft-drink vendor at Hard Rock Cafe’s annual Rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock BIG $22,000 $14,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $4,000P A. 3 If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a big demand, 0. 5 for an average demand, and 0. 2 for a small demand, determine the alternative that provides Clay Whybark the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). P A. 4 For Problem A. 3, compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). *Note: OM; and means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows; means the problem may be solved with Excel P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM. 686 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S H. Weiss, Inc. is considering building a sensitive new airport scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0. 4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss’s expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000.Determine the EMV of each decision. For Problem A. 5, compute the expected value of perfect information. The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand at Amber Gardner’s software firm: DEMAND LOW Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 $10,000 $ 5,000 $ 2,000 HIGH $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 P A. 5 P P A. 6 A. 7 a) b) c) The probability of low demand is 0. 4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0. 6. What is the highest possible expected monetary value? What is the expected value under certainty?Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation. Leah Johnson, director of Legal Services of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide free legal advice but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time lawyer or by using part-time lawyers. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Hire full-time Hire part-time Probabilities LOW DEMAND $300 $ 0 . 2 MEDIUM DEMAND $500 $350 . 5 HIGH DEMAND $ 700 $1,000 . 3 P A. 8 Using expected value, what should Ms.Johnson do? P A. 9 Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a family of new products. Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat predictable, so the manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosin g a process that is inappropriate. Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose among batch manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in group technology. Chen won’t be able to forecast demand accurately until after he makes the process choice. Demand will be classified into four compartments: poor, fair, good, and excellent.The table below indicates the payoffs (profits) associated with each process/demand combination, as well as the probabilities of each long-term demand level. POOR Probability Batch Custom Group technology a) b) . 1 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $1,000,000 FAIR . 4 $1,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 500,000 GOOD . 3 $1,200,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 EXCELLENT . 2 $1,300,000 $ 800,000 $2,000,000 Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest gain? What would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast that would accurately determine the level of demand in the future?Julie Resler’s company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet incre asing demand. If demand is high in the future, a major expansion will result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low there will be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, a minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, there will be a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50% chance demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize long-run average profits? P A. 10 P RO B L E M S 87 P A. 11 The University of Dallas bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 90 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Curtis Ketterman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Curtis believes that the distribution of sales may range from 70 to 90 units, according to the foll owing probability model: Demand Probability 70 . 15 75 . 30 80 . 30 85 . 0 90 . 05 a) b) This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $36. Construct the table of conditional profits. How many copies should the bookstore stock to achieve highest expected value? Palmer Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One product is a cheese spread sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 6 cases is . , for 7 cases it is . 3, for 8 cases it is . 5, and for 9 cases it is . 1. The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $95. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. How many cases should Susan manufacture each month? Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dak ota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could lose $180,000.At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision?Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Karen Villagomez, president of Wright Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in the Ozarks. Her decision is summarized in the following table: ALTERNATIVES Build large plant Build small plant Don’t build Market probabilities FAVORABLE MARKET $400,000 $ 80,000 $ 0 0. 4 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 0. 6 P A. 12 A. 13 P A. 14 a) b) c) A. 15 Construct a decision tree. Determine the best strategy using expected monetary value (EMV). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: PERCENT DEFECTIVE 1 3 5 PROBABILITY LOOMBA TECHNOLOGY . 70 . 20 . 10 PROBABILITY STEWART-DOUGLAS ENTERPRISES . 30 . 30 . 40 FOR FOR a) b) For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Loomba Technology is . 70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a . 7 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Loomba Technolo gy is used to fill the order.A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0. 50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Stewart-Douglas Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Loomba. Develop a decision tree. Which supplier should Kellogg use? 688 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).STATES OF NATURE (SIZE OF CROWD) ALTERNATIVES Large inventory Average inventory Small inventory LARGE $20,000 $15,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $10,000 $12,000 $ 6,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $5,000 P A. 16 a) b) If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a large crowd, 0. 5 for an average crowd, and 0. 2 for a small crowd, determine: The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). The e xpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort. The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather.At the resort, his profit will be $120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather. Construct Joseph’s decision tree. What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion? Kenneth Boyer is considering opening a bicycle shop in North Chicago. Boyer enjoys biking, but this is to be a business endeavor from which he expects to make a living. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all.Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Boyer is thinking about using, he wants to make sure he makes the correct decision. Boyer is also thinking about hiring his old market ing professor to conduct a marketing research study to see if there is a market for his services. The results of such a study could be either favorable or unfavorable. Develop a decision tree for Boyer. Kenneth Boyer (of Problem A. 18) has done some analysis of his bicycle shop decision. If he builds a large shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable; he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable.A small shop will return a $30,000 profit with a favorable market and a $10,000 loss if the market is unfavorable. At the present time, he believes that there is a 50-50 chance of a favorable market. His former marketing professor, Y. L. Yang, will charge him $5,000 for the market research. He has estimated that there is a . 6 probability that the market survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a . 9 probability that the market will be favorable given a favorable outcome of the study. However, Yang has warned Boyer that there is a probability of only . 12 of a favorabl e market if the marketing research results are not favorable.Expand the decision tree of Problem A. 18 to help Boyer decide what to do. Dick Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his drugstore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small.With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is . 7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probabil ity of a favorable rental market to . 9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to . 4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Holliday? P A. 17 a) b) A. 18 A. 19 A. 20 A. 21 a) b) A. 22 Problem A. dealt with a decision facing Legal Services of Brookline. Using the data in that problem, provide: The appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. The best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The city of Segovia is contemplating building a second airport to relieve congestion at the main airport and is considering two potential sites, X and Y. Hard Rock Hotels would like to purchase land to build a hotel at the new airport. The value of land has been rising in anticipation and is expected to skyrocket once the city decides between sites X and Y. Consequently, Hard Rock would like to purchase land now.Hard Rock will sell the la nd if the city chooses not to locate the airport nearby. Hard Rock has four choices: (1) buy land at X, (2) buy land at Y, (3) buy land at both X and Y, or (4) do nothing. Hard Rock has collected the following data (which are in millions of euros): SITE X Current purchase price Profits if airport and hotel built at this site Sales price if airport not built at this site 27 45 9 SITE Y 15 30 6 a) b) Hard Rock determines there is a 45% chance the airport will be built at X (hence, a 55% chance it will be built at Y). Set up the decision table. What should Hard Rock decide to do to maximize total net profit?C A S E S T U DY A. 23 689 Louisiana is busy designing new lottery â€Å"scratch-off† games. In the latest game, Bayou Boondoggle, the player is instructed to scratch off one spot: A, B, or C. A can reveal â€Å"Loser, † â€Å"Win $1,† or â€Å"Win $50. † B can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Take a Second Chance. † C can reveal â€Å"Loserâ⠂¬  or â€Å"Win $500. † On the second chance, the player is instructed to scratch off D or E. D can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $1. † E can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $10. † The probabilities at A are . 9, . 09, and . 01. The probabilities at B are . 8 and . 2. The probabilities at C are . 999 and . 001. The probabilities at D are . 5 and . 5.Finally, the probabilities at E are . 95 and . 05. Draw the decision tree that represents this scenario. Use proper symbols and label all branches clearly. Calculate the expected value of this game. INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional homework problems: A. 24 through A. 31. CASE STUDY Tom Tucker’s Liver Transplant Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker ’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tucker’s age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. Discussion Q uestions 1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered? CASE STUDY Ski Right Corp. After retiring as a physician, Bob Guthrie became an avid downhill skier on the steep slopes of the Utah Rocky Mountains.As an amateur inventor, Bob was always looking for something new. With the recent deaths of several celebrity skiers, Bob knew he could use his creative mind to make skiing safer and his bank account larger. He knew that many deaths on the slopes were caused by head injuries. Although ski helmets have been on the market for some time, most skiers consider them boring and basically ugly. As a physician, Bob knew that some type of new ski helmet was the answer. Bob’s biggest challenge was to invent a helmet that was attractive, safe, and fun to wear.Multiple colors and using the latest fashion designs would be musts. After years of skiing, Bob knew that many skiers believe that how you look on the slopes is more im portant than how you ski. His helmets would have to look good and fit in with current fashion trends. But attractive helmets were not enough. Bob had to make the helmets fun and useful. The name of the new ski helmet, Ski Right, was sure to be a winner. If Bob could come up with a good idea, he believed that there was a 20% chance that the market for the Ski Right helmet would be excellent. The chance of a good market should be 40%.Bob also knew that the market for his helmet could be only average (30% chance) or even poor (10% chance). The idea of how to make ski helmets fun and useful came to Bob on a gondola ride to the top of a mountain. A busy executive on the gondola ride was on his cell phone trying to complete a complicated merger. When the executive got off the gondola, he dropped the phone and it was crushed by the gondola mechanism. Bob decided that his new ski helmet would have a built-in cell phone and an AM/FM stereo radio. All the electronics could be operated by a co ntrol pad worn on a skier’s arm or leg.Bob decided to try a small pilot project for Ski Right. He enjoyed being retired and didn’t want a failure to cause him to go back to work. After some research, Bob found Progressive Products (PP). The company was willing to be a partner in developing the Ski Right and sharing any profits. If the market was excellent, Bob would net $5,000 per month. With a good market, Bob would net $2,000. An average market would result in a loss of $2,000, and a poor market would mean Bob would be out $5,000 per month. Another option for Bob was to have Leadville Barts (LB) make the helmet.The company had extensive experience in making bicycle helmets. Progressive would then take the helmets made by Leadville Barts and do the rest. Bob had a greater risk. He estimated that he could lose $10,000 per month in a poor market or $4,000 in an average market. A good market for Ski Right would result in $6,000 profit for Bob, and an excellent market wou ld mean a $12,000 profit per month. (continued) 690 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Cellular to make the phones, and TalRad to make the AM/FM stereo radios. Bob could then hire some friends to assemble everything and market the finishedSki Right helmets. With this final alternative, Bob could realize a net profit of $55,000 a month in an excellent market. Even if the market was just good, Bob would net $20,000. An average market, however, would mean a loss of $35,000. If the market was poor Bob would lose $60,000 per month. A third option for Bob was to use TalRad (TR), a radio company in Tallahassee, Florida. TalRad had extensive experience in making military radios. Leadville Barts could make the helmets, and Progressive Products could do the rest of production and distribution. Again, Bob would be taking on greater risk.A poor market would mean a $15,000 loss per month, and an average market would mean a $10,000 loss. A good market would result in a net profit of $7,000 for Bob. An excellent market would return $13,000 per month. Bob could also have Celestial Cellular (CC) develop the cell phones. Thus, another option was to have Celestial make the phones and have Progressive do the rest of the production and distribution. Because the cell phone was the most expensive component of the helmet, Bob could lose $30,000 per month in a poor market. He could lose $20,000 in an average market.If the market was good or excellent, Bob would see a net profit of $10,000 or $30,000 per month, respectively. Bob’s final option was to forget about Progressive Products entirely. He could use Leadville Barts to make the helmets, Celestial Discussion Questions 1. What do you recommend? 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information. 3. Was Bob completely logical in how he approached this decision problem? Source: B. Render, R. M. Stair, and M. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N. J. : Prentice Hall (2006). Re printed by permission of Prentice Hall, Inc.ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional free case studies: †¢ Arctic, Inc. : A refrigeration company has several major options with regard to capacity and expansion. †¢ Toledo Leather Company: This firm is trying to select new equipment based on potential costs. BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, R. V. â€Å"The State of the Art of Decision Analysis. † Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 5–14. Collin, Ian. â€Å"Scale Management and Risk Assessment for Deepwater Developments. † World Oil 224, no. 5 (May 2003): 62. Hammond, J. S. , R.L. Kenney, and H. Raiffa. â€Å"The Hidden Traps in Decision Making. † 76, no. 5 Harvard Business Review (September–October 1998): 47–60. Jbuedj, C. â€Å"Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty. † Journal of Financial Planning (October 1997): 84. Keefer, Donald L. â€Å"Balancing Drug Safety and Efficacy for a Go/NoGo Decision. † Interfaces 34, no. 2 (March–April 2004): 113–116. Kirkwood, C. W. â€Å"An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis. † Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 28–39. Perdue, Robert K. , William J. McAllister, Peter V. King, and Bruce G. Berkey. Valuation of R and D Projects Using Options Pricing and Decision Analysis Models. † Interfaces 29, 6 (November 1999): 57–74. Raiffa, H. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Certainty. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley (1968). Render, B. , R. M. Stair, Jr. , and R. Balakrishnan. Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall (2006). Render, B. , R. M. Stair Jr. , and M. Hanna. Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall (2006). Schlaifer, R. Analysis of Decisions Under Certainty. New York: McGraw-Hill (1969).

Adidas Analyse

Nikkei appeared in 1978 in the USA and Aids started to lose market shares. By 1990, the brand was sold to a French Investor won uses ten colorless' endorsement communication strategy. In the aim of surpassing the American brand, one of the other main strategies of Aids was acquisitions such as the French ski equipment company: Salomon AS. The brand increased its revenues and was then able to acquire Rebook. Aids still had to overtake Nikkei but is now number one in Europe. In 2009, Aids made a profit of more than 245 million Ð ²? and employed almost 40,000 persons.The German brand is proposing products for a large range of sports such as running, football, tennis, golf, etc. Environment Context Nowadays, the competition on the footwear market has become really strong as in the current time people really care about well being but also because sports has still a strong place in our world. People also care about sports brand because they have become a social symbol and enable people to value their personality and show their membership in some certain social group. Consequently, sports brands fight with each other to become the leader by having the most market shares.Aids is fighting mostly with Nikkei which is the current leader in the footwear market as we will later in this case study (in the competition part). However, Aids has strong tools to become at least the leader in the future. Aids is recognized has the brand of excellence in the sport, in terms of technical and performing shoes but also has since the beginning of its history a strong link with the sports community, being supported by several famous athletes. Aids is also the leader in innovation and design in order to anticipate consumers' needs.The brand tries to help its athletes to increase their skills and their performance with every product of the Aids' range. Generally speaking, Aids is a global organization which is socially and environmentally expansible. It knows how to attract employees and shareholders for financial interest. Aims Aids' mission is to become the global leader with a real passion for sports and a sporting lifestyle. The best way to reach this mission is to have a wide brand and a unique product range for professional and fashion sportive.This gives the possibility to affect lots of consumer needs and exploit each opportunity that market can furnish. They do a difference between quality and quantity. This concept comes from the founder of the brand. Doll Dasher was passionate about sports. He wanted his hoes to be different. They provide excellent comfort while improving athletic performance. These are the statutes of the brand. Its heritage allows Aids to be different from competitors and gives it strength base for future. Marketing objectives In the medium term, Aids wants to increase its leadership in Europe and its shares in the US footwear market.It wants also to be as good as Nikkei, the actual leader. To reach them, it has to furnish constants ef forts to maintain and increase hopefully its position on footwear and apparel market. It has to imitate the competition on their trench points and in the same time, innovate in order to be different. Aids is completely Touches on Its consumers Ana on tenet expectations. I Nat Is winy teen are constantly improving the quality, the look and image of their products. With this, the company hopes to exceed the expectations of their consumers and at least becoming the leader in the footwear market.Contextual analysis The market * Presentation of the global footwear market The footwear market from 1998 to 2009 has gone up: demand for footwear has increased over the last few years. Thus, sales have grown by 9. 3% from 1998 to 2007, even though it went down abruptly in 2009 (-2. 5%). Women's shoes category is the most significant with 47. 7 % of market share, following by the men with 34. 1% part of the market. The children's footwear is the smallest market share category. * Aids footwear ma rket Aids is the world's second largest footwear brand with 22. 9% of market share, after Nikkei (37. %) in 2006. 45% of its revenues are from footwear. Aids distribute its products in 160 countries. They earn most of money selling to large retail stores such as Dick's Sporting goods, Foot locker, or directly to the customers. They had a total of 2 212 retail stores in the world. Western Europe and North America are the two main markets for the sale of Aids products with 31% and 23% of sales 2009. PASTEL analysts * Political First, it is beneficial for Aids to operate in democratic countries as they do not introduce drastic policies, which could affect its sales.Regarding to trading policies, there are no quotas for imported Aids products. However, there is the antiquating law which forbids any company to export its footwear products â€Å"in a country at a price which is below the price at which the product is sold in the market f origin†. Then Aids follows all the current e mployment laws, for the rights of its employees. However, the minimum wage in several countries (such as I-J, France†¦ ) is a constraint for Aids, and which could have a negative impact on its costs of production.That is why, Aids relocates its production activities where the workforce is less expensive such as Indonesia, China and Vietnam. This has made a bad publicity for Aids in these countries as Aids does not give to its employees good working conditions, with a low wage. We can quote as an example the â€Å"Play fair† 2008. * Economic The home economy situation which is the crisis could have a negative effect for Aids as the purchasing power is low. Thus, the unemployment and the decrease of wages could have a bad effect on Aids sales, as customers would not have enough money to spend in its product, vital costs having priority.Interests and exchange rates have also an impact on the consumer behavior. The increase of raw materials' prices as 011 wanly Is a componen t AT plastic NAS an Impact on ten Tall cost AT ten production. Aids has two solutions: increase the sales prices or level down its profit margin. * Social Nowadays, the demography is special: the age distribution is getting higher in most of the world. The target is especially young people who identify themselves to the brand. Maybe Aids should think to the long term.Aids sells in large cities, as there are the highest amounts of customers able to buy sportive shoes in these places. The lifestyle trend of people has changed, compare to several years ago. For instance, more and more people use internet. Aids should have a good platform to sell its products. The obesity is a current problem in our society. Most of the time, these people do not practice sports. It could also have a positive effect: they could want to lose weight and so, buy Aids product to train. People are also becoming less busy and can spend more time to their leisure activities like sports.Regarding to the consumer attitudes, we can notice that the frequency of purchase of Aids footwear is, for most people, to buy one or two football shoes per season. Aids should take that in consideration to promote its shoes during the pre-season. Promotion could also be made before major events such as the World Cup or the European Championship which have an influence on the Aids ad and sales. There s also a fashion and role model with stars wearing Aids shoes: several endorsement contracts have been made with stars such as David Beckman or Lionel Mess. Technological In the footwear market, the key to success is the innovation. Thus, there are new technological advances are becoming more performer as the football shoes which allow the user to kick the ball with more precision and power. Aids needs to be aware of the latest technologies. The use of new materials could be strength for the brand, such as materials able to resist over long distances, humid conditions or extreme temperatures changes. A lot of r esearches are made in the aim to improve the quality of a product.Thus, Aids is the world's first smart shoes (adding a microchip inside the shoe for instance. * Environmental The Sustainable Development is an important subject in our current society, and also for Aids: it has launched its new ecological footwear collection made with natural raw material, recycling material and which are biodegradable. Then, in the aim to protect human health and environment, Aids eliminate PVC and is making progress in finding substitutes like polyurethane, ethyl vinyl, silicone thermoplastic rubber. Yet, global pressure is pushing on Aids which uses for its shoes materials from animals.For instance, it has been seen that Aids slaughtered million of kangaroos, for their skin using to produce leather shoes. In February 2006, David Beckman officially announced that he would not wear Aids shoes anymore. Thus, the environmental campaigners could be a problem for Aids, who should make some R&D to find o thers materials, not taken from animals. * Legal Concerning the regulation, Aids needs to be aware of the legal legislations (most of them protect the customers) such as Sales and Supply of goods act (1979), Trade ascription Act (1968).There is also the European Union (1993), which is the free trace Detente countries Trot EYE: traces are not changer Day customs anymore Ana there are no quotas. Aids has to deal with the counterfeit of Aids footwear products. Competition analysis The competition on the sport footwear has become really aggressive because of many reasons. Nowadays, many people do sports because of the care about well being but also because sports brands have become social symbols that permit to people to distinguish from the others and show their membership in a social group much as for making sport in itself.Consequently, competition on the sport footwear market increase dramatically with the idea of making everything to make your best competitor has a bad image in fro nt of customers and to prove that your brand is the best by all means, we can even talk in some case about unfair competition. In the market of footwear, Disdain's first competitor is Nikkei with 37. 9% of market share, and Aids had 22. 9% % in 2006. Nevertheless, Aids is gaining everyday market shares and we see a close fight between Nikkei and Aids for gaining the global market.Aids makes everything to become the leader on the footwear market. Consequently, to become a bigger threat for Nikkei, Aids has acquired Rebook in 2005, world non in the sport market, in a friendly takeover for 3. 1 billion of Euros (3. 8 billion of dollars). This takeover allows Aids to combine its popularity in Europe among soccer and athletics fans with Rebook popularity in US in basketball and football fan. This takeover is a highly strategic action as it is made in order to win market shares in the U. S where Nikkei is the leader and finally catch its eternal competitor, Nikkei.As we can see, everythin g is made to become a huge threat for Nikkei ND there is a real fight between those two global brands. It can also be seen by the war they lead during major sports events as the football world cup of 2010. They fight to have the biggest number of team who wear their brand and finally in this case it's Aids which wins but which stays close to Nikkei. Indeed, in this football world cup in South Africa, Aids sponsored 12 countries such as South Africa, but also major and favorite teams like those of Germany, Argentina, Spain and France.Aids also made huge benefits in other events, such as the official ball of the world cup, named â€Å"Jubilant† which was created by Aids. Nikkei owns also in this cup 10 famous teams like Brasilia, Netherlands, Portugal and Great-Britain (which wear Umbra, property of Nikkei). It's with this example that we see that Aids and Nikkei have another competitors, named Puma. This brand is well known by Aids, as it has been created by the brother of Aid Dasher after a huge argument between the two brothers. Puma is gaining everyday little by little market share and is gaining in popularity.Puma's strategy is different from its two other big competitors, they are positioned in the luxury market of sport because it has been by the French luxury roof, PR. This brand has a strongly attractive for fashion people, seducing big stars like Brad Pit, or in the sport community the footballer Ankle. Puma is trying to follow Aids and Nikkei by making a lot of actions like for the football world cup. Puma has sponsored 7 teams, mostly African teams, but also a famous team, which won the previous cup, Italy.To better understand the market share that each brand has, we have found a pie chart which represents the market share of each brand in the athletic footwear market where we have decided to focus on, on this case study. Network wellness. Com/stock (It is important to notice that this chart is a bit old as it has been made in 2005, and that f or now, Rebook is now part of Aids) It can be also relevant to make a mapping (See appendix 1) to see where Aids is located / positioned relatively to its competitors in terms of price and technicality.Aids and its competitors Its second competitor is Puma which has been created after a huge argument between the two brothers Dasher ; Aids has to be careful about Puma because it has been buy by the French luxury group PR and is winning little by little market shares. Puma's strategy is different from its two big competitors Nikkei and Aids, they are more specialized in the luxury market, seducing fashion actors (Brad Pit) and famous footballer (Ankle). There is also another competitor in the footwear world named It is also important, in a world of globalization, to highlight the growing power of new entrants from China.There are two domestic famous brands in China: * Lie Inning * Anta They are leaders on the Chinese domestic market in footwear as people prefer to buy domestic brands but also because they are cheaper than Aids and Nikkei. Even if â€Å"Lie Inning and Anta are not competing directly with the two global leaders, they are taking more and more market shares in China, whereas Nikkei and Aids market shares remain the same. † Aids has to be careful of China competitors. Porter's five forces (including generic one) We can introduce this part by the Porter's five generic in order to describe the footwear industry.The five criteria are: * Fragmented * Emerging * Mature * Declining * Global The footwear market is global because the market is saturated in products (everybody has sport shoes at home) but the market is rapidly growing. Porter's five roses can be summarized by many schemes and then, we will apply these forces to our case study. * Threat of new entrants New entrants cannot easily enter in the running shoes' market because a few big companies control the market and they own very important brand awareness, thanks to their advertising budge t.It implies that no new firm can quickly win many market shares without be exposed to a competitive reaction of leaders that will kill the new firm. Nevertheless, some retail companies try to sell low-cost footwear with lower prices than Aids or other important company but with a lower quality as well. With such a positioning, they want to target the people who have not enough money to buy expensive shoes and who are not really the target of Aids. * Threat of substitute products or services Because AT some meal reports wanly Alamo ten running Ana can Impact AT ten leg on the ground.So, some sports which require athletic footwear can be dangerous for the bone structure. That means other sports which do not have such an impact on the health can be a threat for the footwear market such as: swimming, cycling etc. * Bargaining Power of suppliers Shoes' fabrication and technology needs are more and more complex, so Aids upends on more suppliers than before. Raw materials: The insole is a thin layer of man-made ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The components of the middle consist of polyurethane surrounding another material such as gel or liquid silicone, or polyurethane foam given a special brand name by the manufacturer.Outsells are usually made of carbon rubber. Increase of the cost of plastic because of the rise of the oil's price. Working conditions of outsourced production are often qualified to be against the human rights and Aids can be obliged to raise his employees' wages. * Bargaining power of buyers Demand is growing and companies are fighting for selling their products to consumers who become more and harder to please. In big retail stores, consumers have a large choice of running shoes. It means that if prices of a brand are too expensive compared to it quality, they will buy shoes of another firm with a better rate Price/Quality.The market is very competitive and customers can choose between several brands such as: Nikkei, Aids, Puma, Acacias, Mizzen, Ne w Balance, Puma, Spiral, Salomon, Lawful etc. * Rivalry among existing competitors The footwear market is growing quickly with 9. 3% of growth between 1999 and 2007. Despite of the footwear market is oligopolies, because a few companies control it, the competition is very intensive and all firms aim to be the first. The main actors of this market are: Nikkei (Leader), Aids (2nd), Puma, Acacias, Mizzen, New Balance, Puma, Spiral, Salomon and Lawful.Portfolio analysis * Product range Aids has more than 90 million pairs of shoes including 3. 000 different styles. The following shows some example of Aids shoes contingent on performance and price. This provides a clear idea of the various proposals of the mark. (See Appendix 2) So, this brand affected all sports. To be more efficient, we will find Aids athletic shoes in each sport. We choose to focus on it because Nikkei, the dominant brand on this market, is much stronger on fashion shoes. Aids gives priority to performance instead of f ashion.This means Aids will be aimed at professional person than those practicing a sport as leisure. The next list is not an exhaustive list: * Football: Predator, OFF, Dipper, Dizzier * Tennis: Barricade, Genius Novak * Hockey: ADSTAR, Gel Platinum, * Golf: Garbage, Million, Tour 360 * Badminton: Court, Stabile Optimist * Running: Dizzier, Supernova, Jumpstarted, Response cricket: Twenty's, HOOKAH * Basket: TTS Suspected CRU, The Oracle * Rugby: Flanker, Predator, Regulate * Boxing: ADSTAR, Box Hog You can Tina In appendix 3 a can't Witt some pictures way to illustrate the product range of Aids. The BCC manta Decease It Is ten more relevant Using this Boston Consulting Group Matrix, we will evaluate the interest of fields of activities of Aids thought two criterion's: the market share and the market growth. We can observe four areas, crossing the market share axis and the market growth axis: star, problem child, cash cow and dog. The Dog represents products which have low market s hare and market growth. These products do not have any interest for the company: indeed, they do not generate any profits anymore, and are usually products which have been around for a few years.In this case, the company has better abandon these products. In the Aids range of products, the Aids Predator Precision has become a dog, having declined, such as the previous version of the Original Stan Smith 2, dating from 2005 or the ancient Respect Low, Respect Mid or Midrib for running. The Question mark shows products with a low market share and a low market growth. It means that these products have an interesting potential for sails (consequence of the low market share), but their high market growth risks to reduce their competitiveness. It would involve significant investments from the company.The objective is to transform them into stars, with the possibility they can turn into dogs. In the Aids range of products, the Aids OFF is a question mark, recently introduced to the market. We will see if it turns into a dog or a star. The same situation is observed for the AS Wings from Jeremy Scott, which is the new collection, or the new men TTS Supernatural Commander ALT. The new environmental election with the Superstar, the Forum Mid Natural or the Vintage XX 500 are also recently introduced, and Aids will see if the â€Å"green spirit† will have a good effect on the sales of these shoes.The Star corresponds to markets having high growth, and where the company owns high market share. It represents the most profitable products for the company, as they bring in a large amount of profits. The Aids Predator Pulse fits in this section, as it generates profits and significant sales. The Goodyear Race and the new version of the Stan Smith are also the most wanted shoes, and generate an important profit! The Cash Cows are characterized by a low growth market and a high market share. These products are very profitable, as they generate high profits.Their dominated position gives them a competitive advantage concerning prices and margin. Arise from the low market growth, investments are not very high. Thus, these cash cow products are those which enable the company financing its question marks products. The Aids Predator Mania falls in this area, as it is a profitable product, with high sales. The new version of the Barricade V is also a profitable product as it generates high sales with competitive advantage on its price. We can see in Appendix 3 the BCC matrix. * Anions matrix The Anions matrix is a useful tool for noticing future intensive growth opportunities.We can observe four strategies. First, there is the Market Penetration Strategy: the idea is to gain more market share with current products, implementing different promotions. It is the least risky strategy, as it does not cost a lot of money to the company. Thus, Aids could consider this method to acquire more market share, using Its Totally snows, already present on ten market, dev eloping promotions around it. Secondly, the Market Development Strategy is the fact to develop new arrests for current products of a company, through branding and advertising.The current product should also be sold in area where it hasn't been located before. Using this medium risky method, Aids could sell a current footwear product in a new country. Then, there is the Product Development Strategy which is the fact to develop new products (in the aim to replace old products) to current markets. This is the case when each season, a new version of a previous product is bringing out such as Aids with its Predator football shoes. Finally, there is the Diversification Strategy which is for a company, the opportunity to develop new products for new markets!This method is the riskiest one, as there was no previous knowledge of the product or of the market. Thus, Aids could use this strategy to produce a product that the company is not familiar with, to be sold in a new market. We can see i n Appendix 3 the Anions Matrix. Strategic Business Units Strategic Business Unit or SIBS corresponds to the different units which structure the company and represent the corporate identity. It is typically a strategy used by large company. It is the case for Aids. There are several types of SIBS regarding the type f product, the geographic area, etc.Aids is applying a product strategy composed of four Subs: * Aids Sport Performance * Aids Sport Style * Aids Originals: from niche to fashion mainstream * The Fashion Group: Aids is fashion Aids Sport Performance It is the most sport-oriented SUB with all the products proposed to professionals. It represents the idea of performance that Aid Dasher wanted to diffuse. Innovation and transcendence are keys words of A. S. P. It covers most of the sports and focuses its efforts most particularly on five of them. * Football * Running * Training * Basketball * Outdoor Aids Sport StyleAs all of its competitors, Aids also provide street wear and lifestyle fashion footwear. It was primarily a niche but as the target market correspond to the mass market, it became quickly one of the most important SIBS of the brand and the firm started opening new divisions such as Stella Ms Carney and Propose Design Sport. Aids Originals: from niche to fashion mainstream This is the classical SUB which is composed of the first models designed at the beginning of the brand such as the Stan Smith model. It emphasis the â€Å"Celebrate Originality' philosophy. The target is more the youth and teenagers. That is why the

The eNotes Blog Problematic Peacocks and Other Elizabethan EraWarnings

Problematic Peacocks and Other Elizabethan EraWarnings Perhaps the reason the Virgin Queen decided to remain so is to avoid the humiliation of having one of her upstart subjects oil paint a picture of her swaddling cat in her arms. Maybe someday there will be superstitions that arise from the era when Queen Kate and King William reign, but it is unlikely that they will be as elaborate or as colorful as these.   The folks over at The Oddment Emporium  recently posted this list from an elderly nobleman known here only as Sir Cecil who reflected on the superstitions that arose during the era of the Maiden Queen, Elizabeth the First. During the era of my youth, Sir Cecil recalled, it was most important these be followed at all times. 1. One must always say â€Å"God bless you when one wouldst sneeze or else the devil would enter ones body and possess it while the mouth was open. 2. The seventh son of a seventh son possessed great magical properties. If Your Majesty is familiar with the writings of the great contemporary author Miss Joanne Rowling, one wouldst be aware she borrowed this belief though in her literature. It did not apply only to sons but daughters also and the great witch Ginevra Weasley was the seventh child of a father who was a seventh son. (I dont think this is what Sir Cecil had in mind) 3. Peacocks are ill omens, and the eye on the peacock feather is the evil eye of Satan or one of his foul minions. 4. Trees are filled with magick and one can guard against ill omens like the dreaded peacock feather by touching an object made of wood. 5. One must never put one’s shoes on the table for this shall bring death upon one’s household. (So much senseless death is coming) 6. If one should spill salt or pepper this is a great ill omen and a great misfortune, for such spices are extremely expensive. 7. The greatest and most wicked of all ill omens is the eclipse. If such a horrible malfunction of the heavens is to occur, it shall bring death, destruction, and poor manners upon the kingdom. Even the great noble houses shall not be immune to its ill effects. One must always be wary of this time of great peril! (Spilling salt on your peacock during an eclipse heralds the Apocalypse.) Great thanks to Your Majesty for allowing a meager and humble subject such as myself to send you this information I have gathered. May your glorious reign last forever. Your most loyal subject, Sir Cecil